9129767 L968G3EJ 1 apa 50 date desc year Lutsko, N. J. 18 https://nlutsko.scrippsprofiles.ucsd.edu/wp-content/plugins/zotpress/
%7B%22status%22%3A%22success%22%2C%22updateneeded%22%3Afalse%2C%22instance%22%3Afalse%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22request_last%22%3A0%2C%22request_next%22%3A0%2C%22used_cache%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22data%22%3A%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22YZJ44BLI%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Duran%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222025-02-19%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EDuran%2C%20B.%20M.%2C%20Wall%2C%20C.%20J.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Michibata%2C%20T.%2C%20Ma%2C%20P.-L.%2C%20Qin%2C%20Y.%2C%20Duffy%2C%20M.%20L.%2C%20Medeiros%2C%20B.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Debolskiy%2C%20M.%20%282025%29.%20A%20new%20method%20for%20diagnosing%20effective%20radiative%20forcing%20from%20aerosol%26%23x2013%3Bcloud%20interactions%20in%20climate%20models.%20%3Ci%3EAtmospheric%20Chemistry%20and%20Physics%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E25%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%284%29%2C%202123%26%23x2013%3B2146.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.5194%5C%2Facp-25-2123-2025%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.5194%5C%2Facp-25-2123-2025%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22A%20new%20method%20for%20diagnosing%20effective%20radiative%20forcing%20from%20aerosol%5Cu2013cloud%20interactions%20in%20climate%20models%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Brandon%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Duran%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Casey%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wall%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Takuro%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Michibata%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Po-Lun%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Ma%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Yi%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Qin%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Margaret%20L.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Duffy%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Brian%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Medeiros%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Matvey%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Debolskiy%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract.%20Aerosol%5Cu2013cloud%20interactions%20%28ACIs%29%20are%20a%20leading%20source%20of%20uncertainty%20in%20estimates%20of%20the%20historical%20effective%20radiative%20forcing%20%28ERF%29.%20One%20reason%20for%20this%20uncertainty%20is%20the%20difficulty%20in%20estimating%20the%20ERF%20from%20aerosol%5Cu2013cloud%20interactions%20%28ERFaci%29%20in%20climate%20models%2C%20which%20typically%20requires%20multiple%20calls%20to%20the%20radiation%20code.%20Most%20commonly%20used%20methods%20also%20cannot%20disentangle%20the%20contributions%20from%20different%20processes%20to%20ERFaci.%20Here%2C%20we%20develop%20a%20new%2C%20computationally%20efficient%20method%20for%20estimating%20the%20shortwave%20%28SW%29%20ERFaci%20from%20liquid%20clouds%20using%20histograms%20of%20monthly%20averaged%20cloud%20fraction%20partitioned%20by%20cloud%20droplet%20effective%20radius%20%28re%29%20and%20liquid%20water%20path%20%28LWP%29.%20Multiplying%20the%20histograms%20with%20SW%20cloud%20radiative%20kernels%20gives%20the%20total%20SW%20ERFaci%20from%20liquid%20clouds%2C%20which%20can%20be%20decomposed%20into%20contributions%20from%20the%20Twomey%20effect%2C%20LWP%20adjustments%2C%20and%20cloud%20fraction%20%28CF%29%20adjustments.%20We%20test%20the%20method%20with%20data%20from%20five%20CMIP6-era%20models%2C%20using%20the%20Moderate%20Resolution%20Imaging%20Spectroradiometer%20%28MODIS%29%20satellite%20instrument%20simulator%20to%20generate%20the%20histograms.%20Our%20method%20gives%20similar%20total%20SW%20ERFaci%20estimates%20to%20other%20established%20methods%20in%20regions%20of%20prevalent%20liquid%20cloud%20and%20indicates%20that%20the%20Twomey%20effect%2C%20LWP%20adjustments%2C%20and%20CF%20adjustments%20have%20contributed%20%5Cu22120.34%5Cu2009%5Cu00b1%5Cu20090.23%2C%20%5Cu22120.22%5Cu2009%5Cu00b1%5Cu20090.13%2C%20and%20%5Cu22120.09%5Cu2009%5Cu00b1%5Cu20090.11%5Cu2009W%5Cu2009m%5Cu22122%2C%20respectively%2C%20to%20the%20effective%20radiative%20forcing%20of%20the%20climate%20since%201850%20in%20the%20ensemble%20mean%20%2895%5Cu2009%25%20confidence%29.%20These%20results%20demonstrate%20that%20widespread%20adoption%20of%20a%20MODIS%20re%5Cu2013LWP%20joint%20histogram%20diagnostic%20would%20allow%20the%20SW%20ERFaci%20and%20its%20components%20to%20be%20quickly%20and%20accurately%20diagnosed%20from%20climate%20model%20outputs%2C%20a%20crucial%20step%20for%20reducing%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20historical%20ERF.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222025-02-19%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.5194%5C%2Facp-25-2123-2025%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%221680-7324%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Facp.copernicus.org%5C%2Farticles%5C%2F25%5C%2F2123%5C%2F2025%5C%2F%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222025-03-12T16%3A17%3A50Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%228JTZFPV9%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Zhang%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-08-27%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EZhang%2C%20P.%2C%20Xie%2C%20S.-P.%2C%20Kosaka%2C%20Y.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Okumura%2C%20Y.%20M.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Miyamoto%2C%20A.%20%282024%29.%20Why%20East%20Asian%20monsoon%20anomalies%20are%20more%20robust%20in%20post%20El%20Ni%26%23xF1%3Bo%20than%20in%20post%20La%20Ni%26%23xF1%3Ba%20summers.%20%3Ci%3ENature%20Communications%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E15%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%281%29%2C%207401.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1038%5C%2Fs41467-024-51885-7%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1038%5C%2Fs41467-024-51885-7%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Why%20East%20Asian%20monsoon%20anomalies%20are%20more%20robust%20in%20post%20El%20Ni%5Cu00f1o%20than%20in%20post%20La%20Ni%5Cu00f1a%20summers%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Pengcheng%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Zhang%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Shang-Ping%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Xie%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Yu%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Kosaka%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Yuko%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Okumura%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Ayumu%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Miyamoto%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20East%20Asian%20summer%20monsoon%20%28EASM%29%20supplies%20vital%20rainfall%20for%20over%20one%20billion%20people.%20El%20Ni%5Cu00f1o-Southern%20Oscillation%20%28ENSO%29%20markedly%20affects%20the%20EASM%2C%20but%20its%20impacts%20are%20more%20robust%20following%20El%20Ni%5Cu00f1o%20than%20La%20Ni%5Cu00f1a.%20Here%2C%20we%20show%20that%20this%20asymmetry%20arises%20from%20the%20asymmetry%20in%20ENSO%20evolution%3A%20though%20most%20El%20Ni%5Cu00f1o%20events%20last%20for%20one%20year%2C%20La%20Ni%5Cu00f1a%20events%20often%20persist%20for%202-3%20years.%20In%20the%20summers%20between%20consecutive%20La%20Ni%5Cu00f1a%20events%2C%20the%20concurrent%20La%20Ni%5Cu00f1a%20opposes%20the%20delayed%20effect%20of%20the%20preceding%20winter%20La%20Ni%5Cu00f1a%20on%20the%20EASM%2C%20causing%20a%20reduction%20in%20the%20magnitude%20and%20coherence%20of%20climate%20anomalies.%20Results%20from%20a%20large%20ensemble%20climate%20model%20experiment%20corroborate%20and%20strengthen%20the%20observational%20analysis%20with%20an%20order%20of%20magnitude%20increase%20in%20sample%20size.%20The%20apparent%20asymmetry%20in%20the%20impacts%20of%20the%20ENSO%20on%20the%20EASM%20can%20be%20reduced%20by%20considering%20the%20concurrent%20ENSO%2C%20in%20addition%20to%20the%20ENSO%20state%20in%20the%20preceding%20winter.%20This%20has%20important%20implications%20for%20seasonal%20climate%20forecasts.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-08-27%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1038%5C%2Fs41467-024-51885-7%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%222041-1723%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fwww.nature.com%5C%2Farticles%5C%2Fs41467-024-51885-7%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22F399VRET%22%2C%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-10-14T22%3A00%3A28Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22J84J59J8%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Vishny%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-08-16%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EVishny%2C%20D.%20N.%2C%20Wall%2C%20C.%20J.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282024%29.%20Impact%20of%20Atmospheric%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effects%20on%20Annular%20Mode%20Persistence%20in%20Idealized%20Simulations.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E51%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2815%29%2C%20e2024GL109420.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2024GL109420%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2024GL109420%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Impact%20of%20Atmospheric%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effects%20on%20Annular%20Mode%20Persistence%20in%20Idealized%20Simulations%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22David%20N.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Vishny%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Casey%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wall%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20mechanisms%20by%20which%20clouds%20impact%20the%20variability%20of%20the%20mid%5Cu2010latitude%20atmosphere%20are%20poorly%20understood.%20We%20use%20an%20idealized%2C%20dry%20atmospheric%20model%20to%20investigate%20the%20relationship%20between%20Atmospheric%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effects%20%28ACRE%29%20and%20annular%20mode%20persistence.%20We%20force%20the%20model%20with%20time%5Cu2010varying%20diabatic%20heating%20that%20mimics%20the%20observed%20ACRE%20response%20to%20the%20Southern%20Annular%20Mode%20%28SAM%29.%20Realistic%20ACRE%20forcing%20reduces%20annular%20mode%20persistence%20by%205%5Cu00a0days%20%28%5Cu221216%25%29%2C%20which%20we%20attribute%20to%20a%20weakening%20of%20low%5Cu2010frequency%20eddy%20forcing%20via%20modified%20low%5Cu2010level%20temperature%20gradients%2C%20though%20this%20effect%20is%20partly%20compensated%20by%20reduced%20frictional%20damping%20due%20to%20zonal%20wind%20anomalies%20becoming%20more%20top%5Cu2010heavy.%20The%20persistence%20changes%20are%20nonlinear%20with%20respect%20to%20the%20amplitude%20of%20ACRE%20forcing%2C%20reflecting%20nonlinearities%20in%20the%20response%20of%20the%20eddy%20forcing.%20These%20results%20highlight%20the%20ACRE%27s%20impact%20on%20low%5Cu2010frequency%20eddy%20forcing%20as%20the%20dominant%20cause%20of%20changes%20in%20annular%20mode%20persistence.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20In%20this%20study%2C%20we%20conduct%20novel%20modeling%20experiments%20aimed%20at%20understanding%20how%20clouds%20affect%20the%20unforced%20variability%20of%20jet%20streams%5Cu2014concentrated%20bands%20of%20eastward%20wind%20in%20the%20mid%5Cu2010latitude%20atmosphere.%20We%20focus%20on%20direct%20heating%20and%20cooling%20of%20the%20atmosphere%20by%20clouds%2C%20called%20Atmospheric%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effects%20%28ACRE%29%2C%20and%20how%20these%20impact%20the%20annular%20mode%5Cu2014the%20most%20significant%20type%20of%20jet%20stream%20variability%2C%20which%20consists%20of%20north%5Cu2010south%20shifts%20of%20the%20jet%27s%20position.%20Using%20a%20simplified%20atmospheric%20model%2C%20we%20investigate%20how%20the%20persistence%20and%20structure%20of%20the%20annular%20mode%20are%20impacted%20by%20heatings%20and%20coolings%20that%20mimic%20the%20observed%20ACRE%20response%20to%20the%20Southern%20Hemisphere%20Annular%20Mode%20%28SAM%29.%20We%20find%20that%20the%20ACRE%20reduces%20the%20persistence%20of%20the%20annular%20mode%20%28i.e.%2C%20deviations%20of%20the%20jet%20stream%20from%20its%20mean%20position%20tend%20to%20persist%20for%20less%20time%29%2C%20which%20we%20attribute%20to%20a%20weakening%20of%20the%20feedback%20mechanism%20by%20which%20atmospheric%20waves%20strengthen%20the%20jet%20where%20it%20is%20already%20strongest.%20We%20identify%20some%20compensating%20effects%2C%20but%2C%20overall%2C%20our%20results%20highlight%20that%20ACRE%20impacts%20jet%20streams%20via%20low%5Cu2010altitude%20temperature%20gradients%20and%20atmospheric%20wave%20generation.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Key%20Points%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20response%20of%20Atmospheric%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effects%20%28ACRE%29%20to%20the%20Southern%20Annular%20Mode%20%28SAM%29%20reduces%20SAM%27s%20persistence%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20decrease%20in%20SAM%27s%20persistence%20is%20attributed%20to%20weakened%20low%5Cu2010frequency%20eddy%20forcing%20via%20disruption%20of%20low%5Cu2010level%20temperature%20gradients%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20change%20in%20persistence%20is%20nonlinear%20with%20respect%20to%20the%20amplitude%20of%20ACRE%20forcing%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-08-16%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2024GL109420%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%2C%201944-8007%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2024GL109420%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-08-30T21%3A19%3A47Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22LSXCUTVC%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Cronin%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-07-28%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Cronin%2C%20T.%20W.%20%282024%29.%20The%20Transition%20to%20Double%26%23x2010%3BCelled%20Circulations%20in%20Mock%26%23x2010%3BWalker%20Simulations.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E51%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2814%29%2C%20e2024GL108945.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2024GL108945%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2024GL108945%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Transition%20to%20Double%5Cu2010Celled%20Circulations%20in%20Mock%5Cu2010Walker%20Simulations%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Timothy%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Cronin%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20have%20the%20potential%20to%20play%20a%20key%20role%20in%20a%20tropical%20model%20hierarchy%2C%20bridging%20small%5Cu2010scale%20Radiative%5Cu2010Convective%20Equilibrium%20simulations%20and%20global%20models%20of%20tropical%20circulations.%20We%20demonstrate%20that%20mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20transition%20from%20single%5Cu2010%20to%20double%5Cu2010celled%20overturning%20circulations%20as%20mean%20Sea%20Surface%20Temperature%20%28SST%29%20is%20increased%2C%20with%20the%20transition%20occurring%20near%20300%20K.%20The%20transition%20is%20robust%20to%20domain%20geometry%20and%20microphysical%20scheme%2C%20and%20is%20favored%20by%20larger%20SST%20gradients.%20The%20transition%20is%20associated%20with%20the%20development%20of%20a%20mid%5Cu2010tropospheric%20minimum%20in%20the%20radiative%5Cu2010subsidence%20velocity%20over%20the%20cold%20pool%20of%20the%20simulations%2C%20and%20is%20likely%20reinforced%20by%20zonal%20moisture%20and%20temperature%20fluxes%20between%20the%20warm%20and%20cold%20pools.%20Several%20methods%20of%20suppressing%20the%20transition%20are%20investigated%2C%20but%20all%20set%5Cu2010ups%20produce%20a%20double%5Cu2010cell%20at%20sufficiently%20warm%20mean%20SSTs.%20The%20striking%20dynamical%20transition%20of%20mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20dominates%20their%20response%20to%20warming%2C%20though%20its%20relevance%20for%20observed%20tropical%20climate%20change%20is%20unclear.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Untangling%20the%20coupled%20interactions%20between%20clouds%20and%20large%5Cu2010scale%20atmospheric%20flows%20is%20one%20of%20the%20%5Cu201cGrand%20Challenges%5Cu201d%20of%20climate%20science.%20Large%5Cu2010scale%20flows%20are%20the%20main%20control%20on%20the%20spatial%20distribution%20of%20cloud%5Cu2010types%20in%20the%20tropics%2C%20but%20clouds%20in%20turn%20play%20a%20key%20role%20in%20setting%20the%20strengths%20and%20spatial%20structures%20of%20these%20flows.%20Here%2C%20we%20investigate%20%5Cu201cmock%5Cu2010Walker%5Cu201d%20simulations%20as%20a%20potential%20idealized%20modeling%20set%5Cu2010up%20for%20investigating%20the%20two%5Cu2010way%20interactions%20between%20clouds%20and%20tropical%20circulations.%20Mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20include%20the%20zonal%20sea%5Cu2010surface%20temperature%20%28SST%29%20gradient%20needed%20to%20generate%20realistic%20tropical%20circulations%2C%20while%20using%20grid%20resolutions%20sufficient%20to%20partially%20resolve%20clouds.%20However%2C%20in%20this%20study%20we%20document%20a%20robust%20transition%20in%20the%20large%5Cu2010scale%20flow%20in%20mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20from%20a%20single%20overturning%20cell%20to%20two%20vertically%5Cu2010stacked%20overturning%20cells%20%28a%20double%5Cu2010celled%20flow%29%20as%20the%20mean%20SST%20is%20increased.%20This%20transition%20occurs%20for%20a%20mean%20SST%20close%20to%20the%20observed%20SSTs%20in%20the%20equatorial%20Pacific%2C%20and%20dominates%20the%20response%20of%20mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20to%20warming.%20The%20transition%20is%20robust%20to%20domain%20geometry%2C%20microphysical%20scheme%20and%20to%20fixing%20the%20radiation.%20While%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20provide%20a%20complete%20explanation%20of%20the%20transition%2C%20it%20does%20seem%20to%20be%20associated%20with%20extreme%20dryness%20over%20the%20cold%20pools%20of%20the%20simulations.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Key%20Points%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20transition%20from%20single%5Cu2010to%20a%20double%5Cu2010celled%20circulation%20as%20the%20mean%20SST%20is%20increased%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20This%20is%20associated%20with%20a%20mid%5Cu2010tropospheric%20minimum%20in%20the%20cold%20pool%20radiative%5Cu2010subsidence%20velocity%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Elevated%20stability%20maxima%20cause%20transitions%20in%20mock%5Cu2010Walker%20simulations%20with%20fixed%20radiative%20cooling%20and%20artificial%20moisture%20sources%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-07-28%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2024GL108945%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%2C%201944-8007%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2024GL108945%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-07-31T23%3A09%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%222WS9KCMB%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Tuckman%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-07-15%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3ETuckman%2C%20P.%20J.%2C%20Smyth%2C%20J.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Marshall%2C%20J.%20%282024%29.%20The%20Zonal%20Seasonal%20Cycle%20of%20Tropical%20Precipitation%3A%20Introducing%20the%20Indo-Pacific%20Monsoonal%20Mode.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E37%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2814%29%2C%203807%26%23x2013%3B3824.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0125.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0125.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Zonal%20Seasonal%20Cycle%20of%20Tropical%20Precipitation%3A%20Introducing%20the%20Indo-Pacific%20Monsoonal%20Mode%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22P.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Tuckman%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Jane%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Smyth%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22John%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Marshall%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20intertropical%20convergence%20zone%20%28ITCZ%29%20is%20associated%20with%20a%20zonal%20band%20of%20strong%20precipitation%20that%20migrates%20meridionally%20over%20the%20seasonal%20cycle.%20Tropical%20precipitation%20also%20migrates%20zonally%2C%20such%20as%20from%20the%20South%20Asian%20monsoon%20in%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20summer%20%28JJA%29%20to%20the%20precipitation%20maximum%20of%20the%20west%20Pacific%20in%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20winter%20%28DJF%29.%20To%20explore%20this%20zonal%20movement%20in%20the%20Indo-Pacific%20sector%2C%20we%20analyze%20the%20seasonal%20cycle%20of%20tropical%20precipitation%20using%20a%202D%20energetic%20framework%20and%20study%20idealized%20atmosphere%5Cu2013ocean%20simulations%20with%20and%20without%20ocean%20dynamics.%20In%20the%20observed%20seasonal%20cycle%2C%20an%20atmospheric%20energy%20and%20precipitation%20anomaly%20forms%20over%20South%20Asia%20in%20northern%20spring%20and%20summer%20due%20to%20heating%20over%20land.%20It%20is%20then%20advected%20eastward%20into%20the%20west%20Pacific%20in%20northern%20autumn%20and%20remains%20there%20due%20to%20interactions%20with%20the%20Pacific%20cold%20tongue%20and%20equatorial%20easterlies.%20We%20interpret%20this%20phenomenon%20as%20a%20%5Cu201cmonsoonal%20mode%2C%5Cu201d%20a%20zonally%20propagating%20moist%20energy%20anomaly%20of%20continental%20and%20seasonal%20scale.%20To%20understand%20the%20behavior%20of%20the%20monsoonal%20mode%2C%20we%20develop%20and%20explore%20an%20analytical%20model%20in%20which%20the%20monsoonal%20mode%20is%20advected%20by%20low-level%20winds%2C%20is%20sustained%20by%20interaction%20with%20the%20ocean%2C%20and%20decays%20due%20to%20the%20free%20tropospheric%20mixing%20of%20energy.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Significance%20Statement%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Regional%20concentrations%20of%20tropical%20precipitation%2C%20such%20as%20the%20South%20Asian%20monsoon%2C%20provide%20water%20to%20billions%20of%20people.%20These%20features%20have%20strong%20seasonal%20cycles%20that%20have%20typically%20been%20framed%20in%20terms%20of%20meridional%20shifts%20of%20precipitation%20following%20the%20sun%5Cu2019s%20movement.%20Here%2C%20we%20study%20zonal%20shifts%20of%20tropical%20precipitation%20over%20the%20seasonal%20cycle%20in%20observations%20and%20idealized%20simulations.%20We%20find%20that%20land%5Cu2013ocean%20contrasts%20trigger%20a%20monsoon%20with%20concentrated%20precipitation%20over%20Asia%20in%20northern%20summer%20and%20near-surface%20eastward%20winds%20carry%20this%20precipitation%20into%20the%20west%20Pacific%20during%20northern%20autumn%20in%20what%20we%20call%20a%20%5Cu201cmonsoonal%20mode.%5Cu201d%20This%20concentrated%20precipitation%20remains%20over%20the%20west%20Pacific%20during%20northern%20winter%2C%20as%20further%20migration%20is%20impeded%20by%20the%20cold%20sea%20surface%20temperatures%20%28SSTs%29%20and%20easterly%20winds%20of%20the%20east%20Pacific.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-07-15%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0125.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%2C%201520-0442%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fclim%5C%2F37%5C%2F14%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0125.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-07-31T23%3A09%3A56Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%227HPPG389%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Nazarian%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-04-15%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3ENazarian%2C%20R.%20H.%2C%20Brizuela%2C%20N.%20G.%2C%20Matijevic%2C%20B.%20J.%2C%20Vizzard%2C%20J.%20V.%2C%20Agostino%2C%20C.%20P.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282024%29.%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20Mean%20and%20Extreme%20Precipitation%20over%20Northern%20Mexico.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E37%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%288%29%2C%202405%26%23x2013%3B2422.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0390.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0390.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Projected%20Changes%20in%20Mean%20and%20Extreme%20Precipitation%20over%20Northern%20Mexico%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Robert%20H.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Nazarian%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Noel%20G.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Brizuela%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Brody%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Matijevic%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22James%20V.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Vizzard%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Carissa%20P.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Agostino%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Northern%20Mexico%20is%20home%20to%20more%20than%2032%20million%20people%20and%20is%20of%20significant%20agricultural%20and%20economic%20importance%20for%20the%20country.%20The%20region%20includes%20three%20distinct%20hydroclimatic%20regions%2C%20all%20of%20which%20regularly%20experience%20severe%20dryness%20and%20flooding%20and%20are%20highly%20susceptible%20to%20future%20changes%20in%20precipitation.%20To%20date%2C%20little%20work%20has%20been%20done%20to%20characterize%20future%20trends%20in%20either%20mean%20or%20extreme%20precipitation%20over%20northern%20Mexico.%20To%20fill%20this%20gap%2C%20we%20investigate%20projected%20precipitation%20trends%20over%20the%20region%20in%20the%20NA-CORDEX%20ensemble%20of%20dynamically%20downscaled%20simulations.%20We%20first%20verify%20that%20these%20simulations%20accurately%20reproduce%20observed%20precipitation%20over%20northern%20Mexico%2C%20as%20derived%20from%20the%20Multi-Source%20Weighted-Ensemble%20Precipitation%20%28MSWEP%29%20product%2C%20demonstrating%20that%20the%20NA-CORDEX%20ensemble%20is%20appropriate%20for%20studying%20precipitation%20trends%20over%20the%20region.%20By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20century%2C%20simulations%20forced%20with%20a%20high-emissions%20scenario%20project%20that%20both%20mean%20and%20extreme%20precipitation%20will%20decrease%20to%20the%20west%20and%20increase%20to%20the%20east%20of%20the%20Sierra%20Madre%20highlands%2C%20decreasing%20the%20zonal%20gradient%20in%20precipitation.%20We%20also%20find%20that%20the%20North%20American%20monsoon%2C%20which%20is%20responsible%20for%20a%20substantial%20fraction%20of%20the%20precipitation%20over%20the%20region%2C%20is%20likely%20to%20start%20later%20and%20last%20approximately%20three%20weeks%20longer.%20The%20frequency%20of%20extreme%20precipitation%20events%20is%20expected%20to%20double%20throughout%20the%20region%2C%20exacerbating%20the%20flood%20risk%20for%20vulnerable%20communities%20in%20northern%20Mexico.%20Collectively%2C%20these%20results%20suggest%20that%20the%20extreme%20precipitation-related%20dangers%20that%20the%20region%20faces%2C%20such%20as%20flooding%2C%20will%20increase%20significantly%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20century%2C%20with%20implications%20for%20the%20agricultural%20sector%2C%20economy%2C%20and%20infrastructure.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Significance%20Statement%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Northern%20Mexico%20regularly%20experiences%20severe%20flooding%20and%20its%20important%20agricultural%20sector%20can%20be%20heavily%20impacted%20by%20variations%20in%20precipitation.%20Using%20high-resolution%20climate%20model%20simulations%20that%20have%20been%20tested%20against%20observations%2C%20we%20find%20that%20these%20hydroclimate%20extremes%20are%20likely%20to%20be%20exacerbated%20in%20a%20warming%20climate%3B%20the%20dry%20%28wet%29%20season%20is%20projected%20to%20receive%20significantly%20less%20%28more%29%20precipitation%20%28approximately%20%5Cu00b110%25%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20century%29.%20Simulations%20suggest%20that%20some%20of%20the%20changes%20in%20precipitation%20over%20the%20region%20can%20be%20related%20to%20the%20North%20American%20monsoon%2C%20with%20the%20monsoon%20starting%20later%20in%20the%20year%20and%20lasting%20several%20weeks%20longer.%20Our%20results%20also%20suggest%20that%20the%20frequency%20of%20extreme%20precipitation%20will%20increase%2C%20although%20this%20increase%20is%20smaller%20than%20that%20projected%20for%20other%20regions%2C%20with%20the%20strongest%20storms%20becoming%2020%25%20more%20frequent%20per%20degree%20of%20warming.%20These%20results%20suggest%20that%20this%20region%20may%20experience%20significant%20changes%20to%20its%20hydroclimate%20through%20the%20end%20of%20the%20century%20that%20will%20require%20significant%20resilience%20planning.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-04-15%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0390.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%2C%201520-0442%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fclim%5C%2F37%5C%2F8%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0390.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-04-12T20%3A42%3A52Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22UZXELY3U%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Beucler%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-02-09%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EBeucler%2C%20T.%2C%20Gentine%2C%20P.%2C%20Yuval%2C%20J.%2C%20Gupta%2C%20A.%2C%20Peng%2C%20L.%2C%20Lin%2C%20J.%2C%20Yu%2C%20S.%2C%20Rasp%2C%20S.%2C%20Ahmed%2C%20F.%2C%20O%26%23x2019%3BGorman%2C%20P.%20A.%2C%20Neelin%2C%20J.%20D.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Pritchard%2C%20M.%20%282024%29.%20Climate-invariant%20machine%20learning.%20%3Ci%3EScience%20Advances%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E10%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%286%29%2C%20eadj7250.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1126%5C%2Fsciadv.adj7250%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1126%5C%2Fsciadv.adj7250%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Climate-invariant%20machine%20learning%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Tom%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Beucler%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Pierre%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Gentine%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Janni%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Yuval%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Ankitesh%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Gupta%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Liran%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Peng%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Jerry%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lin%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Sungduk%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Yu%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Stephan%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Rasp%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Fiaz%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Ahmed%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Paul%20A.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22O%5Cu2019Gorman%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22J.%20David%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Neelin%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Michael%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Pritchard%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Projecting%20climate%20change%20is%20a%20generalization%20problem%3A%20We%20extrapolate%20the%20recent%20past%20using%20physical%20models%20across%20past%2C%20present%2C%20and%20future%20climates.%20Current%20climate%20models%20require%20representations%20of%20processes%20that%20occur%20at%20scales%20smaller%20than%20model%20grid%20size%2C%20which%20have%20been%20the%20main%20source%20of%20model%20projection%20uncertainty.%20Recent%20machine%20learning%20%28ML%29%20algorithms%20hold%20promise%20to%20improve%20such%20process%20representations%20but%20tend%20to%20extrapolate%20poorly%20to%20climate%20regimes%20that%20they%20were%20not%20trained%20on.%20To%20get%20the%20best%20of%20the%20physical%20and%20statistical%20worlds%2C%20we%20propose%20a%20framework%2C%20termed%20%5Cu201cclimate-invariant%5Cu201d%20ML%2C%20incorporating%20knowledge%20of%20climate%20processes%20into%20ML%20algorithms%2C%20and%20show%20that%20it%20can%20maintain%20high%20offline%20accuracy%20across%20a%20wide%20range%20of%20climate%20conditions%20and%20configurations%20in%20three%20distinct%20atmospheric%20models.%20Our%20results%20suggest%20that%20explicitly%20incorporating%20physical%20knowledge%20into%20data-driven%20models%20of%20Earth%20system%20processes%20can%20improve%20their%20consistency%2C%20data%20efficiency%2C%20and%20generalizability%20across%20climate%20regimes.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Physically%20informed%20transformations%20aid%20the%20machine%20learning%20of%20Earth%20system%20model%20processes%20that%20generalize%20across%20climates.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-02-09%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1126%5C%2Fsciadv.adj7250%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%222375-2548%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fwww.science.org%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1126%5C%2Fsciadv.adj7250%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-04-29T21%3A46%3A38Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22A34LX4Y8%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Zhang%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024-01-01%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EZhang%2C%20P.%2C%20Xie%2C%20S.-P.%2C%20Kosaka%2C%20Y.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282024%29.%20Non-ENSO%20Precursors%20for%20Northwestern%20Pacific%20Summer%20Monsoon%20Variability%20with%20Implications%20for%20Predictability.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E37%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%281%29%2C%20199%26%23x2013%3B212.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0169.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0169.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Non-ENSO%20Precursors%20for%20Northwestern%20Pacific%20Summer%20Monsoon%20Variability%20with%20Implications%20for%20Predictability%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Pengcheng%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Zhang%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Shang-Ping%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Xie%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Yu%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Kosaka%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20influence%20of%20El%20Ni%5Cu00f1o%5Cu2013Southern%20Oscillation%20%28ENSO%29%20in%20the%20Asian%20monsoon%20region%20can%20persist%20through%20the%20post-ENSO%20summer%2C%20after%20the%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20%28SST%29%20anomalies%20in%20the%20tropical%20Pacific%20have%20dissipated.%20The%20long%20persistence%20of%20coherent%20post-ENSO%20anomalies%20is%20caused%20by%20a%20positive%20feedback%20due%20to%20interbasin%20ocean%5Cu2013atmospheric%20coupling%2C%20known%20as%20the%20Indo-western%20Pacific%20Ocean%20capacitor%20%28IPOC%29%20effect%2C%20although%20the%20feedback%20mechanism%20itself%20does%20not%20necessarily%20rely%20on%20the%20antecedence%20of%20ENSO%20events%2C%20suggesting%20the%20potential%20for%20substantial%20internal%20variability%20independent%20of%20ENSO.%20To%20investigate%20the%20respective%20role%20of%20ENSO%20forcing%20and%20non-ENSO%20internal%20variability%2C%20we%20conduct%20ensemble%20%5Cu201cforecast%5Cu201d%20experiments%20with%20a%20full-physics%2C%20globally%20coupled%20atmosphere%5Cu2013ocean%20model%20initialized%20from%20a%20multidecadal%20tropical%20Pacific%20pacemaker%20simulation.%20The%20leading%20mode%20of%20internal%20variability%20as%20represented%20by%20the%20forecast-ensemble%20spread%20resembles%20the%20post-ENSO%20IPOC%2C%20despite%20the%20absence%20of%20antecedent%20ENSO%20forcing%20by%20design.%20The%20persistent%20atmospheric%20and%20oceanic%20anomalies%20in%20the%20leading%20mode%20highlight%20the%20positive%20feedback%20mechanism%20in%20the%20internal%20variability.%20The%20large%20sample%20size%20afforded%20by%20the%20ensemble%20spread%20allows%20us%20to%20identify%20robust%20non-ENSO%20precursors%20of%20summer%20IPOC%20variability%2C%20including%20a%20cool%20SST%20patch%20over%20the%20tropical%20northwestern%20Pacific%2C%20a%20warming%20patch%20in%20the%20tropical%20North%20Atlantic%2C%20and%20downwelling%20oceanic%20Rossby%20waves%20in%20the%20tropical%20Indian%20Ocean%20south%20of%20the%20equator.%20The%20pathways%20by%20which%20the%20precursors%20develop%20into%20the%20summer%20IPOC%20mode%20and%20the%20implications%20for%20improved%20predictability%20are%20discussed.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222024-01-01%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0169.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%2C%201520-0442%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fclim%5C%2F37%5C%2F1%5C%2FJCLI-D-23-0169.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22F399VRET%22%2C%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-02-14T18%3A37%3A33Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22LTV7JMFE%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222024%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Martinez-Claros%2C%20J.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Koll%2C%20D.%20D.%20B.%20%282024%29.%20Atmospheric%20Moisture%20Decreases%20Midlatitude%20Eddy%20Kinetic%20Energy.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E81%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2811%29%2C%201817%26%23x2013%3B1832.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-23-0226.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-23-0226.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Atmospheric%20Moisture%20Decreases%20Midlatitude%20Eddy%20Kinetic%20Energy%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Jos%5Cu00e9%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Martinez-Claros%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Daniel%20D.%20B.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Koll%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20There%20is%20compelling%20evidence%20that%20atmospheric%20moisture%20may%20either%20increase%20or%20decrease%20midlatitude%20eddy%20kinetic%20energy%20%28EKE%29.%20We%20reconcile%20these%20findings%20by%20using%20a%20hierarchy%20of%20idealized%20atmospheric%20models%20to%20demonstrate%20that%20moisture%20energizes%20individual%20eddies%20given%20fixed%20large-scale%20background%20winds%20and%20temperatures%20but%20makes%20those%20background%20conditions%20less%20favorable%20for%20eddy%20growth.%20For%20climates%20similar%20to%20the%20present%20day%2C%20the%20latter%20effect%20wins%20out%2C%20and%20moisture%20weakens%20midlatitude%20eddy%20activity.%20The%20model%20hierarchy%20includes%20a%20moist%20two-layer%20quasigeostrophic%20%28QG%29%20model%20and%20an%20idealized%20moist%20general%20circulation%20model%20%28GCM%29.%20In%20the%20QG%20model%2C%20EKE%20increases%20when%20moisture%20is%20added%20to%20simulations%20with%20fixed%20baroclinicity%2C%20closely%20following%20a%20previously%20derived%20scaling.%20But%20in%20both%20models%2C%20moisture%20decreases%20EKE%20when%20environmental%20conditions%20are%20allowed%20to%20vary.%20We%20explain%20these%20results%20by%20examining%20the%20models%5Cu2019%20mean%20available%20potential%20energy%20%28MAPE%29%20and%20by%20calculating%20terms%20in%20the%20models%5Cu2019%20Lorenz%20energy%20cycles.%20In%20the%20QG%20model%2C%20the%20EKE%20decreases%20because%20precipitation%20preferentially%20forms%20on%20the%20poleward%20side%20of%20the%20jet%2C%20releasing%20latent%20heat%20where%20the%20model%20is%20relatively%20cold%20and%20decreasing%20the%20MAPE%2C%20hence%20the%20EKE.%20In%20the%20moist%20GCM%2C%20the%20MAPE%20primarily%20decreases%20because%20the%20midlatitude%20stability%20increases%20as%20the%20model%20is%20moistened%2C%20with%20reduced%20meridional%20temperature%20gradients%20playing%20a%20secondary%20role.%20Together%2C%20these%20results%20clarify%20moisture%5Cu2019s%20role%20in%20driving%20the%20midlatitude%20circulation%20and%20also%20highlight%20several%20drawbacks%20of%20QG%20models%20for%20studying%20moist%20processes%20in%20midlatitudes.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Significance%20Statement%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Dry%20models%20of%20the%20atmosphere%20have%20played%20a%20central%20role%20in%20the%20study%20of%20large-scale%20atmospheric%20dynamics.%20But%20we%20know%20that%20moisture%20adds%20much%20complexity%2C%20associated%20with%20phase%20changes%2C%20its%20effect%20on%20atmospheric%20stability%2C%20and%20the%20release%20of%20latent%20heat%20during%20condensation.%20Here%2C%20we%20take%20an%20important%20step%20toward%20incorporating%20moisture%20into%20our%20understanding%20of%20midlatitude%20dynamics%20by%20reconciling%20two%20diverging%20lines%20of%20literature%2C%20which%20suggest%20that%20atmospheric%20moisture%20can%20either%20increase%20or%20decrease%20midlatitude%20eddy%20kinetic%20energy.%20We%20explain%20these%20opposing%20results%20by%20showing%20that%20moisture%20not%20only%20makes%20individual%20eddies%20more%20energetic%20but%20also%20makes%20the%20environment%20in%20which%20eddies%20form%20less%20favorable%20for%20eddy%20growth.%20For%20climates%20similar%20to%20the%20present%20day%2C%20the%20latter%20effect%20wins%20out%20such%20that%20moisture%20decreases%20atmospheric%20eddy%20kinetic%20energy.%20We%20demonstrate%20this%20point%20using%20several%20different%20idealized%20atmospheric%20models%2C%20which%20allow%20us%20to%20gradually%20add%20complexity%20and%20to%20smoothly%20vary%20between%20moist%20and%20dry%20climates.%20These%20results%20add%20fundamental%20understanding%20to%20how%20moisture%20affects%20midlatitude%20climates%2C%20including%20how%20its%20effects%20change%20in%20warmer%20and%20moisture%20climates%2C%20while%20also%20highlighting%20some%20drawbacks%20of%20the%20idealized%20atmospheric%20models.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%2211%5C%2F2024%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-23-0226.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%2C%201520-0469%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fatsc%5C%2F81%5C%2F11%5C%2FJAS-D-23-0226.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222024-12-10T20%3A20%3A57Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22HVIYIFGE%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Henry%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222023-12-16%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EHenry%2C%20M.%2C%20Vallis%2C%20G.%20K.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Seeley%2C%20J.%20T.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20McKim%2C%20B.%20A.%20%282023%29.%20State%26%23x2010%3BDependence%20of%20the%20Equilibrium%20Climate%20Sensitivity%20in%20a%20Clear%26%23x2010%3BSky%20GCM.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E50%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2823%29%2C%20e2023GL104413.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2023GL104413%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2023GL104413%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22State%5Cu2010Dependence%20of%20the%20Equilibrium%20Climate%20Sensitivity%20in%20a%20Clear%5Cu2010Sky%20GCM%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Matthew%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Henry%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Geoffrey%20K.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Vallis%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Jacob%20T.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Seeley%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Brett%20A.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22McKim%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20climate%20sensitivity%20peaks%20around%20310%5Cu00a0K%20in%20a%20wide%20variety%20of%20climate%20models%2C%20ranging%20from%20idealized%20single%20column%20models%20to%20fully%20comprehensive%20climate%20models.%20Here%2C%20we%20increase%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20using%20a%20clear%5Cu2010sky%20three%5Cu2010dimensional%20atmospheric%20model%20with%20a%20radiation%20scheme%20which%20maintains%20accuracy%20for%20high%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20and%20temperature%20levels.%20In%20contrast%2C%20the%20Equilibrium%20Climate%20Sensitivity%20%28ECS%29%20of%20our%20model%20plateaus%20around%20310%5Cu00a0K.%20We%20show%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20moistening%20of%20the%20subtropical%20regions%20caused%20by%20a%20slowdown%20in%20atmospheric%20circulation%2C%20which%20increases%20the%20ECS%20at%20very%20high%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20values.%20When%20relative%20humidity%20is%20fixed%2C%20the%20ECS%20peak%20is%20consistent%20with%20single%20column%20model%20results.%20This%20work%20does%20not%20rule%20out%20that%20clouds%20or%20other%20complex%20processes%20impact%20the%20ECS%20in%20comprehensive%20climate%20models.%20Though%20the%20changes%20in%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20here%20are%20extreme%2C%20this%20study%20underlines%20the%20importance%20of%20changes%20in%20atmospheric%20circulation%20and%20relative%20humidity%20in%20quantitative%20assessments%20of%20climate%20sensitivity.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20From%20simple%20single%20column%20models%20to%20fully%20comprehensive%20three%5Cu2010dimensional%20climate%20models%2C%20when%20we%20increase%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20to%20very%20high%20levels%2C%20we%20find%20a%20peak%20in%20the%20temperature%20increase%20per%20doubling%20of%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20at%20around%20310%5Cu00a0K.%20While%20we%20understand%20why%20this%20happens%20in%20simple%20models%2C%20we%20lack%20an%20understanding%20for%20fully%20comprehensive%20climate%20models.%20Our%20study%20uses%20an%20intermediate%20complexity%20three%5Cu2010dimensional%20climate%20model%20to%20bridge%20this%20gap.%20We%20find%20that%20the%20peak%20in%20climate%20sensitivity%20is%20not%20as%20pronounced%20as%20in%20other%20studies.%20We%20show%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20large%20changes%20in%20the%20atmospheric%20circulation%20which%20causes%20a%20moistening%20of%20the%20subtropics%20and%20an%20increase%20in%20the%20climate%20sensitivity.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Key%20Points%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Climate%20sensitivity%20peaks%20around%20310%5Cu00a0K%20in%20a%20variety%20of%20climate%20models%2C%20ranging%20from%20idealized%20single%20column%20models%20to%20comprehensive%20models%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20We%20use%20a%20clear%5Cu2010sky%20GCM%20to%20bridge%20the%20gap%20between%20comprehensive%20models%20and%20single%20column%20models%20for%20which%20we%20have%20a%20theory%20for%20this%20peak%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20At%20high%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20changes%20in%20atmospheric%20circulation%20cause%20a%20moistening%20of%20the%20subtropical%20regions%20and%20increase%20the%20climate%20sensitivity%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222023-12-16%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2023GL104413%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%2C%201944-8007%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2023GL104413%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-12-22T21%3A57%3A55Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22SUFZVH2H%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Beck%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222023-10-23%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EBeck%2C%20H.%20E.%2C%20McVicar%2C%20T.%20R.%2C%20Vergopolan%2C%20N.%2C%20Berg%2C%20A.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Dufour%2C%20A.%2C%20Zeng%2C%20Z.%2C%20Jiang%2C%20X.%2C%20Van%20Dijk%2C%20A.%20I.%20J.%20M.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Miralles%2C%20D.%20G.%20%282023%29.%20High-resolution%20%281%20km%29%20K%26%23xF6%3Bppen-Geiger%20maps%20for%201901%26%23x2013%3B2099%20based%20on%20constrained%20CMIP6%20projections.%20%3Ci%3EScientific%20Data%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E10%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%281%29%2C%20724.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1038%5C%2Fs41597-023-02549-6%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1038%5C%2Fs41597-023-02549-6%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22High-resolution%20%281%20km%29%20K%5Cu00f6ppen-Geiger%20maps%20for%201901%5Cu20132099%20based%20on%20constrained%20CMIP6%20projections%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Hylke%20E.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Beck%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Tim%20R.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22McVicar%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Noemi%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Vergopolan%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Alexis%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Berg%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Ambroise%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Dufour%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Zhenzhong%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Zeng%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Xin%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Jiang%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Albert%20I.%20J.%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Van%20Dijk%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Diego%20G.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Miralles%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20We%20introduce%20Version%202%20of%20our%20widely%20used%201-km%20K%5Cu00f6ppen-Geiger%20climate%20classification%20maps%20for%20historical%20and%20future%20climate%20conditions.%20The%20historical%20maps%20%28encompassing%201901%5Cu20131930%2C%201931%5Cu20131960%2C%201961%5Cu20131990%2C%20and%201991%5Cu20132020%29%20are%20based%20on%20high-resolution%2C%20observation-based%20climatologies%2C%20while%20the%20future%20maps%20%28encompassing%202041%5Cu20132070%20and%202071%5Cu20132099%29%20are%20based%20on%20downscaled%20and%20bias-corrected%20climate%20projections%20for%20seven%20shared%20socio-economic%20pathways%20%28SSPs%29.%20We%20evaluated%2067%20climate%20models%20from%20the%20Coupled%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20phase%206%20%28CMIP6%29%20and%20kept%20a%20subset%20of%2042%20with%20the%20most%20plausible%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20-induced%20warming%20rates.%20We%20estimate%20that%20from%201901%5Cu20131930%20to%201991%5Cu20132020%2C%20approximately%205%25%20of%20the%20global%20land%20surface%20%28excluding%20Antarctica%29%20transitioned%20to%20a%20different%20major%20K%5Cu00f6ppen-Geiger%20class.%20Furthermore%2C%20we%20project%20that%20from%201991%5Cu20132020%20to%202071%5Cu20132099%2C%205%25%20of%20the%20land%20surface%20will%20transition%20to%20a%20different%20major%20class%20under%20the%20low-emissions%20SSP1-2.6%20scenario%2C%208%25%20under%20the%20middle-of-the-road%20SSP2-4.5%20scenario%2C%20and%2013%25%20under%20the%20high-emissions%20SSP5-8.5%20scenario.%20The%20K%5Cu00f6ppen-Geiger%20maps%2C%20along%20with%20associated%20confidence%20estimates%2C%20underlying%20monthly%20air%20temperature%20and%20precipitation%20data%2C%20and%20sensitivity%20metrics%20for%20the%20CMIP6%20models%2C%20can%20be%20accessed%20at%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20www.gloh2o.org%5C%2Fkoppen%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222023-10-23%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1038%5C%2Fs41597-023-02549-6%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%222052-4463%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fwww.nature.com%5C%2Farticles%5C%2Fs41597-023-02549-6%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-12-01T18%3A19%3A00Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%226JMNT9RN%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Ricke%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222023-05-30%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3ERicke%2C%20K.%2C%20Wan%2C%20J.%20S.%2C%20Saenger%2C%20M.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282023%29.%20Hydrological%20Consequences%20of%20Solar%20Geoengineering.%20%3Ci%3EAnnual%20Review%20of%20Earth%20and%20Planetary%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E51%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%281%29%2C%20annurev-earth-031920-083456.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1146%5C%2Fannurev-earth-031920-083456%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1146%5C%2Fannurev-earth-031920-083456%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Hydrological%20Consequences%20of%20Solar%20Geoengineering%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Katharine%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Ricke%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Jessica%20S.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wan%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Marissa%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Saenger%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22As%20atmospheric%20carbon%20dioxide%20concentrations%20rise%20and%20climate%20change%20becomes%20more%20destructive%2C%20geoengineering%20has%20become%20a%20subject%20of%20serious%20consideration.%20By%20reflecting%20a%20fraction%20of%20incoming%20sunlight%2C%20solar%20geoengineering%20could%20cool%20the%20planet%20quickly%2C%20but%20with%20uncertain%20effects%20on%20regional%20climatology%2C%20particularly%20hydrological%20patterns.%20Here%2C%20we%20review%20recent%20work%20on%20projected%20hydrologic%20outcomes%20of%20solar%20geoengineering%2C%20in%20the%20context%20of%20a%20robust%20literature%20on%20hydrological%20responses%20to%20climate%20change.%20While%20most%20approaches%20to%20solar%20geoengineering%20are%20expected%20to%20weaken%20the%20global%20hydrologic%20cycle%2C%20regional%20effects%20will%20vary%20based%20on%20implementation%20method%20and%20strategy.%20The%20literature%20on%20the%20hydrologic%20outcomes%20and%20impacts%20of%20geoengineering%20demonstrates%20that%20its%20implications%20for%20human%20welfare%20will%20depend%20on%20assumptions%20about%20underlying%20social%20conditions%20and%20objectives%20of%20intervention%20as%20well%20as%20the%20social%20lens%20through%20which%20projected%20effects%20are%20interpreted.%20We%20conclude%20with%20suggestions%20to%20reduce%20decision-relevant%20uncertainties%20in%20this%20novel%20field%20of%20Earth%20science%20inquiry.%20%5Cu25aa%20The%20expected%20hydrological%20effects%20of%20reducing%20insolation%20are%20among%20the%20most%20uncertain%20and%20consequential%20impacts%20of%20solar%20geoengineering%20%28SG%29.%20%5Cu25aa%20Theoretical%20frameworks%20from%20broader%20climate%20science%20can%20help%20explain%20SG%27s%20effects%20on%20global%20precipitation%2C%20relative%20humidity%2C%20and%20other%20aspects%20of%20hydroclimate.%20%5Cu25aa%20The%20state%20of%20the%20knowledge%20on%20hydrological%20impacts%20of%20solar%20geoengineering%20is%20unevenly%20concentrated%20among%20regions.%20%5Cu25aa%20Projected%20hydrological%20impacts%20from%20SG%20are%20scenario%20dependent%20and%20difficult%20to%20characterize%20as%20either%20harmful%20or%20beneficial.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Expected%20final%20online%20publication%20date%20for%20the%20Annual%20Review%20of%20Earth%20and%20Planetary%20Sciences%2C%20Volume%2051%20is%20May%202023.%20Please%20see%20http%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fwww.annualreviews.org%5C%2Fpage%5C%2Fjournal%5C%2Fpubdates%20for%20revised%20estimates.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222023-05-30%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1146%5C%2Fannurev-earth-031920-083456%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220084-6597%2C%201545-4495%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fwww.annualreviews.org%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1146%5C%2Fannurev-earth-031920-083456%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22UYQA72T5%22%2C%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-06-23T16%3A08%3A38Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22EFTIETZB%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Koll%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222023%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EKoll%2C%20D.%20D.%20B.%2C%20Jeevanjee%2C%20N.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282023%29.%20An%20Analytic%20Model%20for%20the%20Clear-Sky%20Longwave%20Feedback.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E80%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%288%29%2C%201923%26%23x2013%3B1951.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0178.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0178.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22An%20Analytic%20Model%20for%20the%20Clear-Sky%20Longwave%20Feedback%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Daniel%20D.%20B.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Koll%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nadir%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Jeevanjee%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Climate%20models%20and%20observations%20robustly%20agree%20that%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20clear-sky%20longwave%20feedback%20has%20a%20value%20of%20about%20%5Cu22122%20W%20m%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cu22122%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20K%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cu22121%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20suggesting%20that%20this%20feedback%20can%20be%20estimated%20from%20first%20principles.%20In%20this%20study%2C%20we%20derive%20an%20analytic%20model%20for%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20clear-sky%20longwave%20feedback.%20Our%20approach%20uses%20a%20novel%20spectral%20decomposition%20that%20splits%20the%20feedback%20into%20four%20components%3A%20a%20surface%20Planck%20feedback%20and%20three%20atmospheric%20feedbacks%20from%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%2C%20H%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20O%2C%20and%20the%20H%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20O%20continuum.%20We%20obtain%20analytic%20expressions%20for%20each%20of%20these%20terms%2C%20and%20the%20model%20can%20also%20be%20framed%20in%20terms%20of%20Simpson%5Cu2019s%20law%20and%20deviations%20therefrom.%20We%20validate%20the%20model%20by%20comparing%20it%20against%20line-by-line%20radiative%20transfer%20calculations%20across%20a%20wide%20range%20of%20climates.%20Additionally%2C%20the%20model%20qualitatively%20matches%20the%20spatial%20feedback%20maps%20of%20a%20comprehensive%20climate%20model.%20For%20present-day%20Earth%2C%20our%20analysis%20shows%20that%20the%20clear-sky%20longwave%20feedback%20is%20dominated%20by%20the%20surface%20in%20the%20global%20mean%20and%20in%20the%20dry%20subtropics%3B%20meanwhile%2C%20atmospheric%20feedbacks%20from%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20and%20H%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20O%20become%20important%20in%20the%20inner%20tropics.%20Together%2C%20these%20results%20show%20that%20a%20spectral%20view%20of%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20clear-sky%20longwave%20feedback%20elucidates%20not%20only%20its%20global-mean%20magnitude%2C%20but%20also%20its%20spatial%20pattern%20and%20its%20state%20dependence%20across%20past%20and%20future%20climates.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Significance%20Statement%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20climate%20feedback%20determines%20how%20much%20our%20planet%20warms%20due%20to%20changes%20in%20radiative%20forcing.%20For%20more%20than%2050%20years%20scientists%20have%20been%20predicting%20this%20feedback%20using%20complex%20numerical%20models.%20Except%20for%20cloud%20effects%20the%20numerical%20models%20largely%20agree%2C%20lending%20confidence%20to%20global%20warming%20predictions%2C%20but%20nobody%20has%20yet%20derived%20the%20feedback%20from%20simpler%20considerations.%20We%20show%20that%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20clear-sky%20longwave%20feedback%20can%20be%20estimated%20using%20only%20pen%20and%20paper.%20Our%20results%20confirm%20that%20numerical%20climate%20models%20get%20the%20right%20number%20for%20the%20right%20reasons%2C%20and%20allow%20us%20to%20explain%20regional%20and%20state%20variations%20of%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20climate%20feedback.%20These%20variations%20are%20difficult%20to%20understand%20solely%20from%20numerical%20models%20but%20are%20crucial%20for%20past%20and%20future%20climates.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%2208%5C%2F2023%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0178.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%2C%201520-0469%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fatsc%5C%2F80%5C%2F8%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0178.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-09-11T23%3A43%3A32Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22HHGWHCIY%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222022-12-16%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Luongo%2C%20M.%20T.%2C%20Wall%2C%20C.%20J.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Myers%2C%20T.%20A.%20%282022%29.%20Correlation%20Between%20Cloud%20Adjustments%20and%20Cloud%20Feedbacks%20Responsible%20for%20Larger%20Range%20of%20Climate%20Sensitivities%20in%20CMIP6.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Geophysical%20Research%3A%20Atmospheres%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E127%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2823%29.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2022JD037486%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2022JD037486%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Correlation%20Between%20Cloud%20Adjustments%20and%20Cloud%20Feedbacks%20Responsible%20for%20Larger%20Range%20of%20Climate%20Sensitivities%20in%20CMIP6%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Matthew%20T.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Luongo%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Casey%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wall%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Timothy%20A.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Myers%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222022-12-16%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2022JD037486%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%222169-897X%2C%202169-8996%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2022JD037486%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-03-10T21%3A45%3A50Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22KXDSXKXC%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Neumann%20and%20Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222022-12-15%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3ENeumann%2C%20N.%20K.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282022%29.%20Continental%20Geometry%26%23x2019%3Bs%20Role%20in%20Shaping%20Wintertime%20Temperature%20Variance.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E35%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2824%29%2C%204449%26%23x2013%3B4464.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-21-0925.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-21-0925.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Continental%20Geometry%5Cu2019s%20Role%20in%20Shaping%20Wintertime%20Temperature%20Variance%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicole%20K.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Neumann%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20factors%20controlling%20the%20present-day%20pattern%20of%20temperature%20variance%20are%20poorly%20understood.%20In%20particular%2C%20it%20is%20unclear%20why%20the%20variance%20of%20wintertime%20near-surface%20temperatures%20on%20daily%20and%20synoptic%20time%20scales%20is%20roughly%20twice%20as%20high%20over%20North%20America%20as%20over%20Eurasia.%20In%20this%20study%2C%20continental%20geometry%5Cu2019s%20role%20in%20shaping%20regional%20wintertime%20temperature%20variance%20is%20investigated%20using%20idealized%20climate%20model%20simulations%20run%20with%20midlatitude%20continents%20of%20different%20shapes.%20An%20isolated%2C%20rectangular%20midlatitude%20continent%20suggests%20that%20in%20the%20absence%20of%20other%20geographic%20features%2C%20the%20highest%20temperature%20variance%20will%20be%20located%20in%20the%20northwest%20of%20the%20continent%2C%20roughly%20collocated%20with%20the%20region%20of%20largest%20meridional%20temperature%20gradients%2C%20and%20just%20north%20of%20the%20maximum%20near-surface%20wind%20speeds.%20Simulations%20with%20other%20geometries%2C%20mimicking%20key%20features%20of%20North%20America%20and%20Eurasia%2C%20investigate%20the%20impacts%20of%20continental%20length%20and%20width%2C%20sloping%20coastlines%2C%20and%20inland%20bodies%20of%20water%20on%20regional%20temperature%20variance.%20The%20largest%20effect%20comes%20from%20tapering%20the%20northwest%20corner%20of%20the%20continent%2C%20similar%20to%20Eurasia%2C%20which%20substantially%20reduces%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20variance.%20Narrower%20continents%20have%20smaller%20temperature%20variance%20in%20isolation%2C%20implying%20that%20the%20high%20variances%20over%20North%20America%20must%20be%20due%20to%20the%20nonlocal%20influence%20of%20stationary%20waves.%20Support%20for%20this%20hypothesis%20is%20provided%20by%20simulations%20with%20two%20midlatitude%20continents%2C%20which%20show%20how%20continental%20geometry%20and%20stationary%20waves%20can%20combine%20to%20shape%20regional%20temperature%20variance.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Significance%20Statement%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Wintertime%20temperature%20variance%20over%20North%20America%20is%20roughly%20twice%20as%20high%20as%20over%20Eurasia%2C%20but%20the%20reasons%20for%20this%20are%20unknown.%20Here%20we%20use%20idealized%20climate%20model%20simulations%20to%20investigate%20how%20continental%20geometry%20shapes%20regional%20temperature%20variance.%20We%20find%20that%20the%20smaller%20variance%20over%20Eurasia%20is%20largely%20due%20to%20the%20tapering%20of%20its%20northwest%20coast%2C%20which%20weakens%20temperature%20gradients%20in%20the%20continental%20interior.%20Our%20simulations%20also%20suggest%20that%20in%20isolation%20a%20narrow%20continent%2C%20like%20North%20America%2C%20should%20have%20weak%20temperature%20variance%2C%20implying%20that%20stationary%20waves%20are%20responsible%20for%20the%20high%20variance%20over%20North%20America.%20Understanding%20the%20controls%20on%20regional%20temperature%20variance%20is%20important%20for%20interpreting%20present-day%20winter%20climates%20and%20how%20these%20will%20change%20in%20the%20future.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222022-12-15%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-21-0925.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%2C%201520-0442%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fclim%5C%2F35%5C%2F24%5C%2FJCLI-D-21-0925.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-01-25T21%3A22%3A03Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22UTA2BN2J%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Wall%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222022-11-16%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EWall%2C%20C.%20J.%2C%20Norris%2C%20J.%20R.%2C%20Possner%2C%20A.%2C%20McCoy%2C%20D.%20T.%2C%20McCoy%2C%20I.%20L.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282022%29.%20Assessing%20effective%20radiative%20forcing%20from%20aerosol%26%23x2013%3Bcloud%20interactions%20over%20the%20global%20ocean.%20%3Ci%3EProceedings%20of%20the%20National%20Academy%20of%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E119%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2846%29%2C%20e2210481119.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1073%5C%2Fpnas.2210481119%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1073%5C%2Fpnas.2210481119%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Assessing%20effective%20radiative%20forcing%20from%20aerosol%5Cu2013cloud%20interactions%20over%20the%20global%20ocean%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Casey%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wall%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Joel%20R.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Norris%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Anna%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Possner%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Daniel%20T.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22McCoy%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Isabel%20L.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22McCoy%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22How%20clouds%20respond%20to%20anthropogenic%20sulfate%20aerosols%20is%20one%20of%20the%20largest%20sources%20of%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20radiative%20forcing%20of%20climate%20over%20the%20industrial%20era.%20This%20uncertainty%20limits%20our%20ability%20to%20predict%20equilibrium%20climate%20sensitivity%20%28ECS%29%5Cu2014the%20equilibrium%20global%20warming%20following%20a%20doubling%20of%20atmospheric%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20.%20Here%2C%20we%20use%20satellite%20observations%20to%20quantify%20relationships%20between%20sulfate%20aerosols%20and%20low-level%20clouds%20while%20carefully%20controlling%20for%20meteorology.%20We%20then%20combine%20the%20relationships%20with%20estimates%20of%20the%20change%20in%20sulfate%20concentration%20since%20about%201850%20to%20constrain%20the%20associated%20radiative%20forcing.%20We%20estimate%20that%20the%20cloud-mediated%20radiative%20forcing%20from%20anthropogenic%20sulfate%20aerosols%20is%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cu2212%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%201.11%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cu00b1%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%200.43%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20W%20m%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cu22122%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20over%20the%20global%20ocean%20%2895%25%20confidence%29.%20This%20constraint%20implies%20that%20ECS%20is%20likely%20between%202.9%20and%204.5%20K%20%2866%25%20confidence%29.%20Our%20results%20indicate%20that%20aerosol%20forcing%20is%20less%20uncertain%20and%20ECS%20is%20probably%20larger%20than%20the%20ranges%20proposed%20by%20recent%20climate%20assessments.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222022-11-16%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1073%5C%2Fpnas.2210481119%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220027-8424%2C%201091-6490%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fpnas.org%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1073%5C%2Fpnas.2210481119%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22F2EHYIBZ%22%2C%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-07-17T18%3A51%3A26Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22PYFA7G6G%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Wall%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222022-10%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EWall%2C%20C.%20J.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Vishny%2C%20D.%20N.%20%282022%29.%20Revisiting%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Heating%20and%20the%20Southern%20Annular%20Mode.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E49%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2819%29%2C%209.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2022gl100463%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2022gl100463%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Revisiting%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Heating%20and%20the%20Southern%20Annular%20Mode%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22C.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wall%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22D.%20N.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Vishny%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Cloud-circulation%20interactions%20have%20a%20potentially%20large%20but%20uncertain%20influence%20on%20regional%20climate.%20Here%20we%20use%20satellite%20observations%20to%20investigate%20relationships%20between%20atmospheric%20cloud%20radiative%20heating%20and%20hemispheric-scale%20shifts%20in%20the%20Southern%20Hemisphere%20extratropical%20jet%20stream%2C%20as%20represented%20by%20the%20Southern%20Annular%20Mode.%20In%20contrast%20to%20a%20previous%20study%2C%20we%20find%20that%20poleward%20jet%20shifts%20cause%20bottom-heavy%20heating%20anomalies.%20The%20heating%20anomalies%20arise%20from%20two%20distinct%20mechanisms%3A%20First%2C%20poleward%20jet%20shifts%20promote%20anomalous%20large-scale%20subsidence%20equatorward%20of%20the%20mean%20jet%20latitude.%20This%20increases%20the%20fraction%20of%20low%20clouds%20that%20are%20exposed%20to%20space%2C%20thereby%20enhancing%20lower-tropospheric%20radiative%20cooling.%20Second%2C%20deep%20and%20multi-layer%20clouds%20in%20extratropical%20cyclones%20shift%20poleward%20with%20the%20jet%2C%20causing%20radiative%20heating%20anomalies%20throughout%20the%20troposphere.%20The%20bottom-heavy%20structure%20of%20the%20heating%20anomalies%20occurs%20because%20low%20clouds%20strongly%20emit%20radiation.%20These%20results%20establish%20new%20observational%20benchmarks%20for%20understanding%20extratropical%20cloud-circulation%20interactions.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Oct%202022%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22English%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2022gl100463%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-11-21T21%3A33%3A28Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22VKVV2XJJ%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Nazarian%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222022-09-26%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3ENazarian%2C%20R.%20H.%2C%20Vizzard%2C%20J.%20V.%2C%20Agostino%2C%20C.%20P.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282022%29.%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20Future%20Extreme%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Northeast%20US%20in%20the%20NA-CORDEX%20Ensemble.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Applied%20Meteorology%20and%20Climatology%3C%5C%2Fi%3E.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAMC-D-22-0008.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAMC-D-22-0008.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Projected%20Changes%20in%20Future%20Extreme%20Precipitation%20over%20the%20Northeast%20US%20in%20the%20NA-CORDEX%20Ensemble%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Robert%20H.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Nazarian%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22James%20V.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Vizzard%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Carissa%20P.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Agostino%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20northeast%20United%20States%20is%20a%20densely-populated%20region%20with%20a%20number%20of%20major%20cities%20along%20the%20climatological%20storm%20track.%20Despite%20its%20economic%20and%20social%20importance%2C%20as%20well%20as%20the%20area%5Cu2019s%20vulnerability%20to%20flooding%2C%20there%20is%20significant%20uncertainty%20regarding%20future%20trends%20in%20extreme%20precipitation%20over%20the%20region.%20Here%2C%20we%20undertake%20a%20regional%20study%20of%20the%20projected%20changes%20in%20extreme%20precipitation%20over%20the%20NEUS%20through%20the%20end%20of%20the%2021st%20century%20using%20an%20ensemble%20of%20high-resolution%2C%20dynamically-downscaled%20simulations%20from%20the%20NA-CORDEX%20project.%20We%20find%20that%20extreme%20precipitation%20increases%20throughout%20the%20region%2C%20with%20the%20largest%20changes%20in%20coastal%20regions%20and%20smaller%20changes%20inland.%20These%20increases%20are%20seen%20throughout%20the%20year%2C%20though%20the%20smallest%20changes%20in%20extreme%20precipitation%20are%20seen%20in%20the%20summer%2C%20in%20contrast%20to%20earlier%20studies.%20The%20frequency%20of%20heavy%20precipitation%20also%20increases%2C%20such%20that%20there%20are%20relatively%20fewer%20days%20with%20moderate%20precipitation%20and%20relatively%20more%20days%20with%20either%20no%20or%20strong%20precipitation.%20Averaged%20over%20the%20region%2C%20extreme%20precipitation%20increases%20by%20%2B3-5%25%5C%2F%5Cu00b0C%20of%20local%20warming%2C%20with%20the%20largest%20fractional%20increases%20in%20southern%20and%20inland%20regions%2C%20and%20occurring%20during%20the%20winter%20and%20spring%20seasons.%20This%20is%20lower%20than%20the%20%2B7%25%5C%2F%5Cu00b0C%20rate%20expected%20from%20thermodynamic%20considerations%20alone%2C%20and%20suggests%20that%20dynamical%20changes%20damp%20the%20increases%20in%20extreme%20precipitation.%20These%20changes%20are%20qualitatively%20robust%20across%20ensemble%20members%2C%20though%20there%20is%20notable%20intermodel%20spread%20associated%20with%20models%5Cu2019%20climate%20sensitivity%20and%20with%20changes%20in%20mean%20precipitation.%20Together%2C%20the%20NA-CORDEX%20simulations%20suggest%20that%20this%20densely%20populated%20region%20may%20require%20significant%20adaptation%20strategies%20to%20cope%20with%20the%20increase%20in%20extreme%20precipitation%20expected%20at%20the%20end%20of%20the%20next%20century.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222022-09-26%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJAMC-D-22-0008.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%221558-8424%2C%201558-8432%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fapme%5C%2Faop%5C%2FJAMC-D-22-0008.1%5C%2FJAMC-D-22-0008.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-02-13T22%3A17%3A44Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%225L9EC5CH%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Zhang%20and%20Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222022%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EZhang%2C%20P.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282022%29.%20Seasonal%20Superrotation%20in%20Earth%26%23x2019%3Bs%20Troposphere.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E79%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2812%29%2C%203297%26%23x2013%3B3314.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0066.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0066.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Seasonal%20Superrotation%20in%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20Troposphere%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Pengcheng%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Zhang%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Although%20Earth%5Cu2019s%20troposphere%20does%20not%20superrotate%20in%20the%20annual%20mean%2C%20for%20most%20of%20the%20year%5Cu2014from%20October%20to%20May%5Cu2014the%20winds%20of%20the%20tropical%20upper%20troposphere%20are%20westerly.%20We%20investigate%20this%20seasonal%20superrotation%20using%20reanalysis%20data%20and%20a%20single-layer%20model%20for%20the%20winds%20of%20the%20tropical%20upper%20troposphere.%20We%20characterize%20the%20temporal%20and%20spatial%20structures%20of%20the%20tropospheric%20superrotation%2C%20and%20quantify%20the%20relationships%20between%20the%20superrotation%20and%20the%20leading%20modes%20of%20tropical%20interannual%20variability.%20We%20also%20find%20that%20the%20strength%20of%20the%20superrotation%20has%20remained%20roughly%20constant%20over%20the%20past%20few%20decades%2C%20despite%20the%20winds%20of%20the%20tropical%20upper%20troposphere%20decelerating%20%28becoming%20more%20easterly%29%20in%20other%20months.%20We%20analyze%20the%20monthly%20zonal-mean%20zonal%20momentum%20budget%20and%20use%20numerical%20simulations%20with%20an%20axisymmetric%2C%20single-layer%20model%20of%20the%20tropical%20upper%20troposphere%20to%20study%20the%20underlying%20dynamics%20of%20the%20seasonal%20superrotation.%20Momentum%20flux%20convergence%20by%20stationary%20eddies%20accelerates%20the%20superrotation%2C%20while%20cross-equatorial%20easterly%20momentum%20transport%20associated%20with%20the%20Hadley%20circulation%20decelerates%20the%20superrotation.%20The%20seasonal%20modulations%20of%20these%20two%20competing%20factors%20shape%20the%20superrotation.%20The%20single-layer%20model%20is%20able%20to%20qualitatively%20reproduce%20the%20seasonal%20progression%20of%20the%20winds%20in%20the%20tropical%20upper%20troposphere%2C%20and%20highlights%20the%20northward%20displacement%20of%20the%20intertropical%20convergence%20zone%20in%20the%20annual%20mean%20as%20a%20key%20factor%20responsible%20for%20the%20annual%20cycle%20of%20the%20tropical%20winds.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%2212%5C%2F2022%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0066.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%2C%201520-0469%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fatsc%5C%2F79%5C%2F12%5C%2FJAS-D-22-0066.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222023-01-26T00%3A12%3A08Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22RTMN8FE4%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Hell%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-12%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Hell%2C%20M.%20C.%20%282021%29.%20Moisture%20and%20the%20persistence%20of%20annular%20modes.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E78%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2812%29%2C%203951%26%23x2013%3B3964.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-21-0055.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-21-0055.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Moisture%20and%20the%20persistence%20of%20annular%20modes%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%20C.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Hell%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Annular%20modes%20are%20the%20leading%20mode%20of%20variability%20in%20extratropical%20atmospheres%2C%20and%20a%20key%20source%20of%20predictability%20at%20midlatitudes.%20Previous%20studies%20of%20annular%20modes%20have%20primarily%20used%20dry%20atmospheric%20models%2C%20so%20that%20moisture%27s%20role%20in%20annular%20mode%20dynamics%20is%20still%20unclear.%20In%20this%20study%2C%20a%20moist%20two-layer%20quasigeostrophic%20channel%20model%20is%20used%20to%20study%20the%20effects%20of%20moisture%20on%20annular%20mode%20persistence.%20Using%20a%20channel%20model%20allows%20moisture%27s%20direct%20effects%20to%20be%20studied%2C%20rather%20than%20changes%20in%20persistence%20due%20to%20geometric%20effects%20associated%20with%20shifts%20in%20jet%20latitude%20on%20the%20sphere.%20Simulations%20are%20performed%20in%20which%20the%20strength%20of%20latent%20heat%20release%20is%20varied%20to%20investigate%20how%20annular%20mode%20persistence%20responds%20as%20precipitation%20becomes%20a%20leading%20term%20in%20the%20thermodynamic%20budget.%20At%20short%20lags%20%28%3C20%20model%20days%2C%20approximate%20to%204%20Earth%20days%29%2C%20moisture%20increases%20annular%20mode%20persistence%2C%20reflecting%20weaker%20eddy%20activity%20that%20is%20less%20effective%20at%20disrupting%20zonalmean%20wind%20anomalies.%20Comparisons%20to%20dry%20simulations%20with%20weaker%20mean%20flows%20demonstrate%20that%20moisture%20is%20particularly%20effective%20at%20damping%20high-frequency%20eddies%2C%20further%20enhancing%20short-lag%20persistence.%20At%20long%20lags%20%28%3E20%20model%20days%29%2C%20moisture%20weakly%20increases%20persistence%2C%20though%20it%20decreases%20the%20amplitudes%20of%20low-frequency%20annular%20mode%20anomalies.%20In%20the%20most%20realistic%20simulation%2C%20the%20greater%20short-lag%20persistence%20increases%20the%20e-folding%20time%20of%20the%20zonal%20index%20by%2021%20model%20days%20%28approximate%20to%204%20Earth%20days%29.%20Moisture%20also%20causes%20a%20transition%20to%20propagating%20variability%2C%20though%20this%20does%20not%20seem%20to%20affect%20the%20leading%20mode%27s%20persistence.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021%5C%2F12%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22English%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-21-0055.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22TKGF6VYA%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22England%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-08%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A4%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EEngland%2C%20M.%20R.%2C%20Eisenman%2C%20I.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Wagner%2C%20T.%20J.%20W.%20%282021%29.%20The%20recent%20emergence%20of%20Arctic%20Amplification.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E48%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2815%29%2C%2010.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021gl094086%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021gl094086%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20recent%20emergence%20of%20Arctic%20Amplification%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%20R.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22England%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22I.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Eisenman%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22T.%20J.%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Wagner%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Arctic%20Amplification%20is%20robustly%20seen%20in%20climate%20model%20simulations%20of%20future%20warming%20and%20in%20the%20paleoclimate%20record.%20Here%2C%20we%20focus%20on%20the%20past%20century%20of%20observations.%20We%20show%20that%20Arctic%20Amplification%20is%20only%20a%20recent%20phenomenon%2C%20and%20that%20for%20much%20of%20this%20period%20the%20Arctic%20cooled%20while%20the%20global-mean%20temperature%20rose.%20To%20investigate%20why%20this%20occurred%2C%20we%20analyze%20large%20ensembles%20of%20comprehensive%20climate%20model%20simulations%20under%20different%20forcing%20scenarios.%20Our%20results%20suggest%20that%20the%20global%20warming%20from%20greenhouse%20gases%20was%20largely%20offset%20in%20the%20Arctic%20by%20regional%20cooling%20due%20to%20aerosols%2C%20with%20internal%20climate%20variability%20also%20contributing%20to%20Arctic%20cooling%20and%20global%20warming%20trends%20during%20this%20period.%20This%20suggests%20that%20the%20disruption%20of%20Arctic%20Amplification%20was%20due%20to%20a%20combination%20of%20factors%20unique%20to%20the%2020th%20century%2C%20and%20that%20enhanced%20Arctic%20warming%20should%20be%20expected%20to%20be%20a%20consistent%20feature%20of%20climate%20change%20over%20the%20coming%20century.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021%5C%2F08%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22English%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2021gl094086%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22NSCTF3T8%22%2C%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-21T00%3A05%3A45Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22BEXM5C4V%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Jeevanjee%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-07-28%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EJeevanjee%2C%20N.%2C%20Koll%2C%20D.%20D.%20B.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Lutsko%2C%20N.%20%282021%29.%20%26%23x201C%3BSimpson%26%23x2019%3Bs%20Law%26%23x201D%3B%20and%20the%20Spectral%20Cancellation%20of%20Climate%20Feedbacks.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E48%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2814%29.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021GL093699%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021GL093699%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22%5Cu201cSimpson%27s%20Law%5Cu201d%20and%20the%20Spectral%20Cancellation%20of%20Climate%20Feedbacks%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nadir%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Jeevanjee%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Daniel%20D.%20B.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Koll%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021-07-28%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22en%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2021GL093699%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%2C%201944-8007%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%5C%2Fdoi%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021GL093699%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-11-02T17%3A46%3A20Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22UB8Q6I8X%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-05%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Popp%2C%20M.%2C%20Nazarian%2C%20R.%20H.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Albright%2C%20A.%20L.%20%282021%29.%20Emergent%20constraints%20on%20regional%20cloud%20feedbacks.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E48%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2810%29%2C%2011.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021gl092934%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2021gl092934%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Emergent%20constraints%20on%20regional%20cloud%20feedbacks%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Popp%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22R.%20H.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Nazarian%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22A.%20L.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Albright%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Low-cloud%20based%20emergent%20constraints%20have%20the%20potential%20to%20substantially%20reduce%20uncertainty%20in%20Earth%27s%20equilibrium%20climate%20sensitivity%2C%20but%20recent%20work%20has%20shown%20that%20previously%20developed%20constraints%20fail%20in%20the%20latest%20generation%20of%20climate%20models%2C%20suggesting%20that%20new%20approaches%20are%20needed.%20Here%2C%20we%20investigate%20the%20potential%20for%20emergent%20constraints%20to%20reduce%20uncertainty%20in%20regional%20cloud%20feedbacks%2C%20rather%20than%20the%20global-mean%20cloud%20feedback.%20Strong%20relationships%20are%20found%20between%20the%20monthly%20and%20interannual%20variability%20of%20tropical%20clouds%2C%20and%20the%20tropical%20net%20cloud%20feedback.%20These%20relationships%20are%20combined%20with%20observations%20to%20substantially%20narrow%20the%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20tropical%20cloud%20feedback%20and%20demonstrate%20that%20the%20tropical%20cloud%20feedback%20is%20likely%20%3E0Wm%28-2%29K%28-1%29.%20Promising%20relationships%20are%20also%20found%20in%20the%2090%20degrees-60%20degrees%20S%20and%2030%20degrees-60%20degrees%20N%20regions%2C%20though%20these%20relationships%20are%20not%20robust%20across%20model%20generations%20and%20we%20have%20not%20identified%20the%20associated%20physical%20mechanisms.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021%5C%2F05%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22English%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2021gl092934%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A04Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%224CKAWJHG%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Hell%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-04-07%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EHell%2C%20M.%20C.%2C%20Cornuelle%2C%20B.%20D.%2C%20Gille%2C%20S.%20T.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282021%29.%20Time-Varying%20Empirical%20Probability%20Densities%20of%20Southern%20Ocean%20Surface%20Winds%3A%20Linking%20the%20Leading%20Mode%20to%20SAM%20and%20QuantifyingWind%20Product%20Differences.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%201%26%23x2013%3B80.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-20-0629.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-20-0629.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Time-Varying%20Empirical%20Probability%20Densities%20of%20Southern%20Ocean%20Surface%20Winds%3A%20Linking%20the%20Leading%20Mode%20to%20SAM%20and%20QuantifyingWind%20Product%20Differences%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Momme%20C.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Hell%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Bruce%20D.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Cornuelle%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Sarah%20T.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Gille%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Abstract%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20Southern%20Ocean%20%28SO%29%20surface%20winds%20are%20essential%20for%20ventilating%20the%20upper%20ocean%20by%20bringing%20heat%20and%20CO%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%202%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20to%20the%20ocean%20interior.%20The%20relationships%20between%20mixed-layer%20ventilation%2C%20the%20Southern%20Annular%20Mode%20%28SAM%29%2C%20and%20the%20storm%20tracks%20remain%20unclear%20because%20processes%20can%20be%20governed%20by%20short-term%20wind%20events%20as%20well%20as%20long-term%20means.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20In%20this%20study%2C%20observed%20time-varying%205-day%20probability%20density%20functions%20%28PDFs%29%20of%20ERA5%20surface%20winds%20and%20stresses%20over%20the%20SO%20are%20used%20in%20a%20singular%20value%20decomposition%20to%20derive%20a%20linearly%20independent%20set%20of%20empirical%20basis%20functions.%20The%20first%20modes%20of%20wind%20%2872%25%20of%20the%20total%20wind%20variance%29%20and%20stress%20%2874%25%20of%20the%20total%20stress%20variance%29%20are%20highly%20correlated%20with%20a%20standard%20SAM%20index%20%28%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20r%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%3D%200.82%29%20and%20reflect%20SAM%5Cu2019s%20role%20in%20driving%20cyclone%20intensity%20and%2C%20in%20turn%2C%20extreme%20westerly%20winds.%20This%20Joint%20PDFs%20of%20zonal%20and%20meridional%20wind%20show%20that%20southerly%20and%20less%20westerly%20winds%20associated%20with%20strong%20mixed-layer%20ventilation%20are%20more%20frequent%20during%20short%20and%20distinct%20negative%20SAM%20phases.%20The%20probability%20of%20these%20short-term%20events%20might%20be%20related%20to%20mid-latitude%20atmospheric%20circulation.%20The%20second%20mode%20describes%20seasonal%20changes%20in%20the%20wind%20variance%20%2816%25%20of%20the%20total%20variance%29%20that%20are%20uncorrelated%20with%20the%20first%20mode.%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%5Cn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20The%20analysis%20produces%20similar%20results%20when%20repeated%20using%205-day%20PDFs%20from%20a%20suite%20of%20scatterometer%20products.%20Differences%20between%20wind%20product%20PDFs%20resemble%20the%20first%20mode%20of%20the%20PDFs.%20Together%2C%20these%20results%20show%20a%20strong%20correlation%20between%20surface%20stress%20PDFs%20and%20the%20leading%20modes%20of%20atmospheric%20variability%2C%20suggesting%20that%20empirical%20modes%20can%20serve%20as%20a%20novel%20pathway%20for%20understanding%20differences%20and%20variability%20of%20surface%20stress%20PDFs.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021-04-07%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2FJCLI-D-20-0629.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%2C%201520-0442%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fjournals.ametsoc.org%5C%2Fview%5C%2Fjournals%5C%2Fclim%5C%2Faop%5C%2FJCLI-D-20-0629.1%5C%2FJCLI-D-20-0629.1.xml%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22WQ4Y333C%22%2C%22TFFGCZNI%22%2C%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-11-02T17%3A48%3A38Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22M7NT6SWI%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Henry%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-03%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EHenry%2C%20M.%2C%20Merlis%2C%20T.%20M.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Rose%2C%20B.%20E.%20J.%20%282021%29.%20Decomposing%20the%20drivers%20of%20polar%20amplification%20with%20a%20single-column%20model.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E34%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%286%29%2C%202355%26%23x2013%3B2365.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-20-0178.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-20-0178.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Decomposing%20the%20drivers%20of%20polar%20amplification%20with%20a%20single-column%20model%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Henry%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22T.%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Merlis%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22B.%20E.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Rose%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20precise%20mechanisms%20driving%20Arctic%20amplification%20are%20still%20under%20debate.%20Previous%20attribution%20methods%20compute%20the%20vertically%20uniform%20temperature%20change%20required%20to%20balance%20the%20top-of-atmosphere%20energy%20imbalance%20caused%20by%20each%20forcing%20and%20feedback%2C%20with%20any%20departures%20from%20vertically%20uniform%20warming%20collected%20into%20the%20lapse-rate%20feedback.%20We%20propose%20an%20alternative%20attribution%20method%20using%20a%20single-column%20model%20that%20accounts%20for%20the%20forcing%20dependence%20of%20high-latitude%20lapse-rate%20changes.%20We%20examine%20this%20method%20in%20an%20idealized%20general%20circulation%20model%20%28GCM%29%2C%20finding%20that%2C%20even%20though%20the%20column-integrated%20carbon%20dioxide%20%28CO2%29%20forcing%20and%20water%20vapor%20feedback%20are%20stronger%20in%20the%20tropics%2C%20they%20contribute%20to%20polar-amplified%20surface%20warming%20as%20they%20produce%20bottom-heavy%20warming%20in%20high%20latitudes.%20A%20separation%20of%20atmospheric%20temperature%20changes%20into%20local%20and%20remote%20contributors%20shows%20that%2C%20in%20the%20absence%20of%20polar%20surface%20forcing%20%28e.g.%2C%20sea%20ice%20retreat%29%2C%20changes%20in%20energy%20transport%20are%20primarily%20responsible%20for%20the%20polar-amplified%20pattern%20of%20warming.%20The%20addition%20of%20surface%20forcing%20substantially%20increases%20polar%20surface%20warming%20and%20reduces%20the%20contribution%20of%20atmospheric%20dry%20static%20energy%20transport%20to%20the%20warming.%20This%20physically%20based%20attribution%20method%20can%20be%20applied%20to%20comprehensive%20GCMs%20to%20provide%20a%20clearer%20view%20of%20the%20mechanisms%20behind%20Arctic%20amplification.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021%5C%2F03%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-20-0178.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22387DGCY9%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-02%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282021%29.%20The%20relative%20contributions%20of%20temperature%20and%20moisture%20to%20heat%20stress%20changes%20under%20warming.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E34%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%283%29%2C%20901%26%23x2013%3B917.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-20-0262.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-20-0262.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20relative%20contributions%20of%20temperature%20and%20moisture%20to%20heat%20stress%20changes%20under%20warming%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Increases%20in%20the%20severity%20of%20heat%20stress%20extremes%20are%20potentially%20one%20of%20the%20most%20impactful%20consequences%20of%20climate%20change%2C%20affecting%20human%20comfort%2C%20productivity%2C%20health%2C%20and%20mortality%20in%20many%20places%20on%20Earth.%20Heat%20stress%20results%20from%20a%20combination%20of%20elevated%20temperature%20and%20humidity%2C%20but%20the%20relative%20contributions%20of%20each%20of%20these%20to%20heat%20stress%20changes%20have%20yet%20to%20be%20quantified.%20Here%2C%20conditions%20for%20the%20baseline%20specific%20humidity%20are%20derived%20for%20when%20specific%20humidity%20or%20temperature%20dominates%20heat%20stress%20changes%2C%20as%20measured%20using%20the%20equivalent%20potential%20temperature%20%28theta%28E%29%29.%20Separate%20conditions%20are%20derived%20over%20ocean%20and%20over%20land%2C%20in%20addition%20to%20a%20condition%20for%20when%20relative%20humidity%20changes%20make%20a%20larger%20contribution%20than%20the%20Clausius-Clapeyron%20response%20at%20fixed%20relative%20humidity.%20These%20conditions%20are%20used%20to%20interpret%20the%20theta%28E%29%20responses%20in%20transient%20warming%20simulations%20with%20an%20ensemble%20of%20models%20participating%20in%20phase%206%20of%20the%20Climate%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project.%20The%20regional%20pattern%20of%20theta%28E%29%20changes%20is%20shown%20to%20be%20largely%20determined%20by%20the%20pattern%20of%20specific%20humidity%20changes%2C%20with%20the%20pattern%20of%20temperature%20changes%20playing%20a%20secondary%20role.%20This%20holds%20whether%20considering%20changes%20in%20seasonal-mean%20theta%28E%29%20or%20in%20extreme%20%2898th-percentile%29%20theta%28E%29%20events%2C%20and%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20response%20of%20specific%20humidity%20to%20warming%20is%20shown%20to%20be%20the%20leading%20source%20of%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20theta%28E%29%20response%20at%20most%20land%20locations.%20Finally%2C%20analysis%20of%20ERA5%20data%20demonstrates%20that%20the%20pattern%20of%20observed%20theta%28E%29%20changes%20is%20also%20well%20explained%20by%20the%20pattern%20of%20specific%20humidity%20changes.%20These%20results%20demonstrate%20that%20understanding%20regional%20changes%20in%20specific%20humidity%20is%20largely%20sufficient%20for%20understanding%20regional%20changes%20in%20heat%20stress.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021%5C%2F02%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-20-0262.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22WT8QU83J%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Seeley%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222021-01%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3ESeeley%2C%20J.%20T.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Keith%2C%20D.%20W.%20%282021%29.%20Designing%20a%20radiative%20antidote%20to%20CO2.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E48%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%281%29.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020gl090876%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020gl090876%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Designing%20a%20radiative%20antidote%20to%20CO2%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22J.%20T.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Seeley%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22D.%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Keith%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Solar%20radiation%20modification%20%28SRM%29%20reduces%20the%20CO2-induced%20change%20to%20the%20mean%20global%20hydrological%20cycle%20disproportionately%20more%20than%20it%20reduces%20the%20CO2-induced%20increase%20in%20mean%20surface%20temperature.%20Thus%2C%20if%20SRM%20were%20used%20to%20offset%20all%20CO2-induced%20mean%20warming%2C%20global-mean%20precipitation%20would%20be%20less%20than%20in%20an%20unperturbed%20climate.%20Here%2C%20we%20show%20that%20the%20mismatch%20between%20the%20mean%20hydrological%20effects%20of%20CO2%20and%20SRM%20may%20partly%20be%20alleviated%20by%20spectrally%20tuning%20the%20SRM%20intervention%20%28reducing%20insolation%20at%20some%20wavelengths%20more%20than%20others%29.%20By%20concentrating%20solar%20dimming%20at%20near-infrared%20wavelengths%2C%20where%20H2O%20has%20strong%20absorption%20bands%2C%20the%20direct%20effect%20of%20CO2%20on%20the%20tropospheric%20energy%20budget%20can%20be%20offset%2C%20which%20minimizes%20perturbations%20to%20the%20mean%20hydrological%20cycle.%20Idealized%20cloud-resolving%20simulations%20of%20radiative-convective%20equilibrium%20confirm%20that%20spectrally%20tuned%20SRM%20can%20simultaneously%20maintain%20mean%20surface%20temperature%20and%20precipitation%20at%20their%20unperturbed%20values%20even%20as%20large%20quantities%20of%20CO2%20are%20added%20to%20the%20atmosphere.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222021%5C%2F01%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2020gl090876%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A04Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%227MYCQHTX%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Popp%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222020-11%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EPopp%2C%20M.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Bony%2C%20S.%20%282020%29.%20Weaker%20links%20between%20zonal%20convective%20clustering%20and%20ITCZ%20width%20in%20climate%20models%20than%20in%20observations.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E47%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2822%29.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020gl090479%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020gl090479%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Weaker%20links%20between%20zonal%20convective%20clustering%20and%20ITCZ%20width%20in%20climate%20models%20than%20in%20observations%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Popp%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22S.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Bony%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Strong%20links%20are%20seen%20in%20observations%20between%20convective%20clustering%20and%20several%20properties%20of%20the%20Intertropical%20Convergence%20Zone%20%28ITCZ%29.%20These%20links%20suggest%20that%20biases%20in%20how%20climate%20models%20simulate%20the%20ITCZ%20may%20be%20related%20to%20model%20biases%20in%20convective%20clustering%20or%20that%20there%20may%20be%20biases%20in%20how%20models%20represent%20the%20relationship%20between%20clustering%20and%20the%20ITCZ.%20We%20investigate%20these%20issues%20by%20analyzing%20convective%20clustering%2C%20and%20the%20link%20between%20clustering%20and%20ITCZ%20properties%20in%2018%20climate%20models.%20We%20find%20that%20the%20links%20between%20variability%20in%20convective%20clustering%20and%20variability%20of%20ITCZ%20properties%20are%20generally%20weaker%20and%20less%20robust%20in%20models%20than%20in%20observations.%20By%20contrast%2C%20model%20biases%20in%20the%20climatological%20convective%20clustering%20explain%20a%20substantial%20fraction%20of%20the%20climatological%20double-ITCZ%20bias%2C%20though%20they%20do%20not%20explain%20biases%20in%20the%20climatological%20ITCZ%20width.%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%20The%20tropical%20deep%20convection%20that%20forms%20deep%20and%20strongly%20precipitating%20clouds%20organizes%20in%20various%20patterns%20and%20shapes%20within%20a%20narrow%20rain%20band%20that%20spans%20the%20globe%20in%20the%20tropics.%20The%20form%20of%20organization%20of%20this%20tropical%20deep%20convection%20has%20been%20shown%20to%20covary%20with%20several%20other%20properties%20of%20the%20rain%20band%2C%20such%20as%20its%20meridional%20width%2C%20in%20observations.%20This%20raises%20the%20question%20whether%20climate%20models%20can%20represent%20these%20links%20between%20the%20organization%20of%20convection%20and%20the%20rain-band%20properties.%20It%20is%20found%20that%20models%20simulate%20such%20a%20link%20between%20the%20spatial%20concentration%20of%20the%20deep%20convection%20and%20the%20width%20of%20the%20rain%20band%2C%20but%20this%20link%20is%20generally%20too%20weak.%20The%20models%20are%20unable%20to%20simulate%20the%20observed%20link%20between%20the%20concentration%20of%20the%20deep%20convection%20and%20the%20double-peak%20structure%20of%20the%20rain%20band.%20By%20contrast%2C%20the%20biases%20in%20mean%20concentration%20of%20the%20deep%20convection%20cannot%20explain%20the%20biases%20in%20the%20meridional%20width%20of%20the%20rain%20band%2C%20but%20explain%20a%20substantial%20fraction%20of%20the%20biases%20in%20the%20double-peak%20structure%20of%20the%20rain%20band.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222020%5C%2F11%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2020gl090479%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%2283BY95MS%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Popp%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222020-08%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EPopp%2C%20M.%2C%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Bony%2C%20S.%20%282020%29.%20The%20relationship%20between%20convective%20clustering%20and%20mean%20tropical%20climate%20in%20aquaplanet%20simulations.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Advances%20in%20Modeling%20Earth%20Systems%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E12%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%288%29.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020ms002070%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020ms002070%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20relationship%20between%20convective%20clustering%20and%20mean%20tropical%20climate%20in%20aquaplanet%20simulations%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Popp%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22S.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Bony%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Convective%20clustering%2C%20the%20spatial%20organization%20of%20tropical%20deep%20convection%2C%20can%20manifest%20itself%20in%20two%20ways%3A%20through%20a%20decrease%20in%20the%20total%20area%20covered%20by%20convection%20and%5C%2For%20through%20a%20decrease%20in%20the%20number%20of%20convective%20areas.%20Much%20of%20our%20current%20understanding%20of%20convective%20clustering%20comes%20from%20simulations%20in%20idealized%20radiative%20convective%20equilibrium%20%28RCE%29%20configurations.%20In%20these%20simulations%20the%20two%20forms%20of%20convective%20clustering%20tend%20to%20covary%2C%20and%20their%20individual%20effects%20on%20the%20climate%20are%20thus%20hard%20to%20disentangle.%20This%20study%20shows%20that%20in%20aquaplanet%20simulations%20with%20more%20realistic%20boundary%20conditions%2C%20such%20as%20meridional%20gradients%20of%20surface%20temperature%20and%20rotational%20forces%2C%20the%20two%20aspects%20of%20convective%20clustering%20are%20not%20equivalent%20and%20are%20associated%20with%20different%20impacts%20on%20the%20large-scale%20climate.%20For%20instance%2C%20reducing%20the%20convective%20area%20in%20the%20equatorial%20region%20in%20the%20aquaplanet%20simulations%20results%20in%20broader%20meridional%20humidity%20and%20rain%20distributions%20and%20in%20lower%20tropospheric%20temperatures%20throughout%20the%20tropics.%20By%20contrast%2C%20the%20number%20of%20convective%20regions%20primarily%20impacts%20the%20zonal%20variance%20of%20humidity-related%20quantities%20in%20the%20aquaplanet%20simulations%2C%20as%20the%20distribution%20of%20convective%20regions%20affects%20the%20size%20of%20the%20subsidence%20regions%20and%20thereby%20the%20moistening%20influence%20of%20convective%20regions.%20The%20aquaplanet%20simulations%20confirm%20many%20other%20qualitative%20results%20from%20RCE%20simulations%2C%20such%20as%20a%20reduction%20of%20equatorial%20tropospheric%20humidity%20when%20the%20area%20covered%20by%20convection%20diminishes.%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%20Strong%20precipitation%20events%20in%20Earth%27s%20tropics%20are%20associated%20with%20regions%20of%20strong%20upward%20motions%20that%20can%20extend%20over%20the%20entire%20depth%20of%20the%20troposphere.%20These%20regions%20of%20strong%20upward%20motions%20are%20not%20uniformly%20distributed%20throughout%20the%20tropics%20but%20occur%20mostly%20as%20clusters%20of%20various%20shapes%20and%20sizes%2C%20typically%20within%20a%20narrow%20zonal%20band.%20We%20show%20here%20with%20idealized%20climate%20simulations%20that%20different%20forms%20of%20spatial%20organization%20of%20the%20regions%20of%20upward%20motions%20have%20distinct%20impacts%20on%20the%20climate%2C%20highlighting%20the%20need%20to%20consider%20several%20metrics%20to%20characterize%20the%20organization.%20For%20instance%2C%20reducing%20the%20area%20covered%20by%20upward%20motions%20close%20to%20the%20equator%20results%20in%20broader%20meridional%20humidity%20and%20rain%20distributions.%20By%20contrast%2C%20the%20number%20of%20regions%20of%20upward%20motion%20primarily%20impacts%20the%20zonal%20variance%20of%20humidity-related%20quantities.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222020%5C%2F08%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2020ms002070%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%22%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22LSUH5JB5%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222020-05%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282020%29.%20Testing%20the%20Limits%20and%20Breakdown%20of%20the%20Nonacceleration%20Theorem%20for%20Orographic%20Stationary%20Waves.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E77%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%285%29%2C%201513%26%23x2013%3B1529.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-19-0310.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-19-0310.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Testing%20the%20Limits%20and%20Breakdown%20of%20the%20Nonacceleration%20Theorem%20for%20Orographic%20Stationary%20Waves%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20nonacceleration%20theorem%20states%20that%20the%20torque%20exerted%20on%20the%20atmosphere%20by%20orography%20is%20exactly%20balanced%20by%20the%20convergence%20of%20momentum%20by%20the%20stationary%20waves%20that%20the%20orography%20excites.%20This%20balance%20is%20tested%20in%20simulations%20with%20a%20stationary%20wave%20model%20and%20with%20a%20dry%2C%20idealized%20general%20circulation%20model%20%28GCM%29%2C%20in%20which%20large-scale%20orography%20is%20placed%20at%20the%20latitude%20of%20maximum%20surface%20wind%20speed.%20For%20the%20smallest%20mountain%20considered%20%28maximum%20height%20H%20%3D%200.5%20m%29%2C%20the%20nonacceleration%20balance%20is%20nearly%20met%2C%20but%20the%20damping%20in%20the%20stationary%20wave%20model%20induces%20an%20offset%20between%20the%20stationary%20eddy%20momentum%20flux%20%28EMF%29%20convergence%20and%20the%20mountain%20torque%2C%20leading%20to%20residual%20mean%20flow%20changes.%20A%20stationary%20nonlinearity%20appears%20for%20larger%20mountains%20%28H%20%3E%3D%2010%20m%29%2C%20driven%20by%20preferential%20deflection%20of%20the%20flow%20around%20the%20poleward%20flank%20of%20the%20orography%2C%20and%20causes%20further%20breakdown%20of%20the%20nonacceleration%20balance.%20The%20nonlinearity%20grows%20as%20H%20is%20increased%2C%20and%20is%20stronger%20in%20the%20GCM%20than%20in%20the%20stationary%20wave%20model%2C%20likely%20due%20to%20interactions%20with%20transient%20eddies.%20The%20midlatitude%20jet%20shifts%20poleward%20for%20H%20%3C%3D%202%20km%20and%20equatorward%20for%20larger%20mountains%2C%20reflecting%20changes%20in%20the%20transient%20EMFs%2C%20which%20push%20the%20jet%20poleward%20for%20smaller%20mountains%20and%20equatorward%20for%20larger%20mountains.%20The%20stationary%20EMFs%20consistently%20force%20the%20jet%20poleward.%20These%20results%20add%20to%20our%20understanding%20of%20how%20orography%20affects%20the%20atmosphere%27s%20momentum%20budget%2C%20providing%20insight%20into%20how%20the%20nonacceleration%20theorem%20breaks%20down%3B%20the%20roles%20of%20stationary%20nonlinearities%20and%20transients%3B%20and%20how%20orography%20affects%20the%20strength%20and%20latitude%20of%20eddy-driven%20jets.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222020%5C%2F05%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-19-0310.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22NIV9LZ4H%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222020-05%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Seeley%2C%20J.%20T.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Keith%2C%20D.%20W.%20%282020%29.%20Estimating%20impacts%20and%20trade-offs%20in%20solar%20geoengineering%20scenarios%20with%20a%20moist%20energy%20balance%20model.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E47%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%289%29.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020gl087290%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2020gl087290%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Estimating%20impacts%20and%20trade-offs%20in%20solar%20geoengineering%20scenarios%20with%20a%20moist%20energy%20balance%20model%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22J.%20T.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Seeley%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22D.%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Keith%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22There%20are%20large%20uncertainties%20in%20the%20potential%20impacts%20of%20solar%20radiation%20modification%20%28SRM%29%20and%20in%20how%20these%20impacts%20depend%20on%20the%20way%20SRM%20is%20deployed.%20One%20open%20question%20concerns%20trade-offs%20between%20latitudinal%20profiles%20of%20insolation%20reduction%20and%20climate%20response.%20Here%2C%20a%20moist%20energy%20balance%20model%20is%20used%20to%20evaluate%20several%20SRM%20proposals%2C%20providing%20fundamental%20insight%20into%20how%20the%20insolation%20reduction%20profile%20affects%20the%20climate%20response.%20The%20optimal%20SRM%20profile%20is%20found%20to%20depend%20on%20the%20intensity%20of%20the%20intervention%2C%20as%20the%20most%20effective%20profile%20for%20moderate%20SRM%20focuses%20the%20reduction%20at%20high%20latitudes%2C%20whereas%20the%20most%20effective%20profile%20for%20strong%20SRM%20is%20tropically%20amplified.%20The%20effectiveness%20of%20SRM%20is%20also%20shown%20to%20depend%20on%20when%20it%20is%20applied%2C%20an%20important%20factor%20to%20consider%20when%20designing%20SRM%20proposals.%20Using%20an%20energy%20balance%20model%20allows%20us%20to%20provide%20physical%20explanations%20for%20these%20results%20while%20also%20suggesting%20future%20avenues%20of%20research%20with%20comprehensive%20climate%20models.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222020%5C%2F05%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2020gl087290%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%227P6U9MH5%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222019-09%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Baldwin%2C%20J.%20W.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Cronin%2C%20T.%20W.%20%282019%29.%20The%20Impact%20of%20Large-Scale%20Orography%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter%20Synoptic%20Temperature%20Variability.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E32%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2818%29%2C%205799%26%23x2013%3B5814.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-19-0129.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-19-0129.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Impact%20of%20Large-Scale%20Orography%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Winter%20Synoptic%20Temperature%20Variability%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22J.%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Baldwin%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22T.%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Cronin%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20impact%20of%20large-scale%20orography%20on%20wintertime%20near-surface%20%28850%20hPa%29%20temperature%20variability%20on%20daily%20and%20synoptic%20time%20scales%20%28from%20days%20to%20weeks%29%20in%20the%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20is%20investigated.%20Using%20a%20combination%20of%20theory%2C%20idealized%20modeling%20work%2C%20and%20simulations%20with%20a%20comprehensive%20climate%20model%2C%20it%20is%20shown%20that%20large-scale%20orography%20reduces%20upstream%20temperature%20gradients%2C%20in%20turn%20reducing%20upstream%20temperature%20variability%2C%20and%20enhances%20downstream%20temperature%20gradients%2C%20enhancing%20downstream%20temperature%20variability.%20Hence%2C%20the%20presence%20of%20the%20Rockies%20on%20the%20western%20edge%20of%20the%20North%20American%20continent%20increases%20temperature%20gradients%20over%20North%20America%20and%2C%20consequently%2C%20increases%20North%20American%20temperature%20variability.%20By%20contrast%2C%20the%20presence%20of%20the%20Tibetan%20Plateau%20and%20the%20Himalayas%20on%20the%20eastern%20edge%20of%20the%20Eurasian%20continent%20damps%20temperature%20variability%20over%20most%20of%20Eurasia.%20However%2C%20Tibet%20and%20the%20Himalayas%20also%20interfere%20with%20the%20downstream%20development%20of%20storms%20in%20the%20North%20Pacific%20storm%20track%2C%20and%20thus%20damp%20temperature%20variability%20over%20North%20America%2C%20by%20approximately%20as%20much%20as%20the%20Rockies%20enhance%20it.%20Large-scale%20orography%20is%20also%20shown%20to%20impact%20the%20skewness%20of%20downstream%20temperature%20distributions%2C%20as%20temperatures%20to%20the%20north%20of%20the%20enhanced%20temperature%20gradients%20are%20more%20positively%20skewed%20while%20temperatures%20to%20the%20south%20are%20more%20negatively%20skewed.%20This%20effect%20is%20most%20clearly%20seen%20in%20the%20northwest%20Pacific%2C%20off%20the%20east%20coast%20of%20Japan.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Sep%202019%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-19-0129.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22H2ZZ6N39%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Popp%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222019-09%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A0%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Popp%2C%20M.%20%282019%29.%20Probing%20the%20sources%20of%20uncertainty%20in%20transient%20warming%20on%20different%20timescales.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E46%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2820%29%2C%2011367%26%23x2013%3B11377.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2019gl084018%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2019gl084018%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Probing%20the%20sources%20of%20uncertainty%20in%20transient%20warming%20on%20different%20timescales%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Nicholas%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22Max%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Popp%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20rate%20of%20transient%20warming%20is%20determined%20by%20a%20number%20of%20factors%2C%20notably%20the%20radiative%20forcing%20from%20increasing%20CO2%20concentrations%20and%20the%20net%20radiative%20feedback.%20Uncertainty%20in%20transient%20warming%20comes%20from%20both%20the%20uncertainty%20in%20each%20factor%20and%20from%20the%20warming%27s%20sensitivity%20to%20uncertainty%20in%20each%20factor.%20An%20energy%20balance%20model%20is%20used%20to%20untangle%20these%20two%20components%20of%20uncertainty%20in%20transient%20warming%2C%20which%20is%20shown%20to%20be%20most%20sensitive%20to%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20forcing%20and%20not%20to%20uncertainty%20in%20radiative%20feedbacks.%20Additionally%2C%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20efficacy%20of%20ocean%20heat%20uptake%20is%20more%20important%20than%20uncertainty%20in%20the%20rate%20of%20ocean%20heat%20uptake.%20Three%20further%20implications%20are%20as%20follows%3A%20%281%29%20transient%20warming%20is%20highly%20sensitive%20to%20uncertainty%20in%20emissions%2C%20%282%29%20caution%20is%20warranted%20when%20extrapolating%20future%20warming%20trends%20from%20short-lived%20climate%20perturbations%2C%20and%20%283%29%20climate%20models%20tuned%20using%20the%20historical%20record%20are%20highly%20sensitive%20to%20assumptions%20made%20about%20the%20historical%20forcing.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%222019%5C%2F09%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2019gl084018%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22CEYTPJJ5%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222019-06%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Marshall%2C%20J.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Green%2C%20B.%20%282019%29.%20Modulation%20of%20Monsoon%20Circulations%20by%20Cross-Equatorial%20Ocean%20Heat%20Transport.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E32%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2812%29%2C%203471%26%23x2013%3B3485.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-18-0623.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-18-0623.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Modulation%20of%20Monsoon%20Circulations%20by%20Cross-Equatorial%20Ocean%20Heat%20Transport%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Marshall%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22B.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Green%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22Motivated%20by%20observations%20of%20southward%20ocean%20heat%20transport%20%28OHT%29%20in%20the%20northern%20Indian%20Ocean%20during%20summer%2C%20the%20role%20of%20the%20ocean%20in%20modulating%20monsoon%20circulations%20is%20explored%20by%20coupling%20an%20atmospheric%20model%20to%20a%20slab%20ocean%20with%20an%20interactive%20representation%20of%20OHT%20and%20an%20idealized%20subtropical%20continent.%20Southward%20OHT%20by%20the%20cross-equatorial%20cells%20is%20caused%20by%20Ekman%20flow%20driven%20by%20southwesterly%20monsoon%20winds%20in%20the%20summer%20months%2C%20cooling%20sea%20surface%20temperatures%20%28SSTs%29%20south%20of%20the%20continent.%20This%20increases%20the%20reversed%20meridional%20surface%20gradient%20of%20moist%20static%20energy%2C%20shifting%20the%20precipitation%20maximum%20over%20the%20land%20and%20strengthening%20the%20monsoonal%20circulation%2C%20in%20the%20sense%20of%20enhancing%20the%20vertical%20wind%20shear.%20However%2C%20the%20atmosphere%27s%20cross-equatorial%20meridional%20overturning%20circulation%20is%20also%20weakened%20by%20the%20presence%20of%20southward%20OHT%2C%20as%20the%20atmosphere%20is%20required%20to%20transport%20less%20energy%20across%20the%20equator.%20The%20sensitivity%20of%20these%20effects%20to%20varying%20the%20strength%20of%20the%20OHT%2C%20fixing%20the%20OHT%20at%20its%20annual-mean%20value%2C%20and%20to%20removing%20the%20land%20is%20explored.%20Comparisons%20with%20more%20realistic%20models%20suggest%20that%20the%20idealized%20model%20used%20in%20this%20study%20produces%20a%20reasonable%20representation%20of%20the%20effect%20of%20OHT%20on%20SSTs%20equatorward%20of%20subtropical%20continents%2C%20and%20hence%20can%20be%20used%20to%20study%20the%20role%20of%20OHT%20in%20shaping%20monsoon%20circulations%20on%20Earth.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Jun%202019%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-18-0623.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22NXLWDUQ9%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Cronin%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222018-11%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Cronin%2C%20T.%20W.%20%282018%29.%20Increase%20in%20Precipitation%20Efficiency%20With%20Surface%20Warming%20in%20Radiative-Convective%20Equilibrium.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Advances%20in%20Modeling%20Earth%20Systems%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E10%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2811%29%2C%202992%26%23x2013%3B3010.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2018ms001482%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2018ms001482%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Increase%20in%20Precipitation%20Efficiency%20With%20Surface%20Warming%20in%20Radiative-Convective%20Equilibrium%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22T.%20W.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Cronin%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20precipitation%20efficiency%20of%20convection%20%28epsilon%29%20plays%20an%20important%20role%20in%20simple%20models%20of%20the%20tropical%20atmosphere%20as%20well%20as%20in%20global%20climate%20models%27%20projections%20of%20future%20climate%20changes%2C%20but%20remains%20poorly%20understood%20and%20poorly%20constrained.%20A%20particularly%20urgent%20question%20is%20how%20epsilon%20will%20change%20in%20warmer%20climates.%20To%20address%20these%20issues%2C%20this%20study%20investigates%20the%20precipitation%20efficiency%20in%20simulations%20of%20radiative-convective%20equilibrium%20with%20a%20cloud-resolving%20model%20forced%20by%20a%20wide%20range%20of%20sea%20surface%20temperatures%20%28SSTs%29.%20Two%20different%20domains%20are%20considered%3A%20a%20small%2C%20doubly%20periodic%20domain%2C%20and%20a%202-D%20%28x-z%29%20%5C%22mock-Walker%5C%22%20domain%20with%20a%20sinusoidal%20SST%20profile%20that%20resembles%20the%20equatorial%20Pacific%2C%20and%20the%20sensitivities%20of%20the%20results%20to%20the%20microphysical%20scheme%20and%20to%20the%20horizontal%20resolution%20are%20also%20explored.%20It%20is%20found%20that%20epsilon%20generally%20increases%20with%20warming%20in%20the%20small%20domain%20simulations%20because%20of%20increases%20in%20the%20efficiency%20with%20which%20cloud%20condensate%20is%20converted%20into%20precipitation%2C%20with%20changes%20in%20the%20re-evaporation%20of%20falling%20precipitation%20playing%20a%20secondary%20role.%20This%20picture%20is%20complicated%20in%20the%202-D%20simulations%20by%20substantial%20changes%20in%20the%20degree%20of%20convective%20organization%20as%20the%20underlying%20SSTs%20are%20varied.%20epsilon%20is%20found%20to%20decrease%20as%20convection%20becomes%20more%20organized%2C%20because%20convective%20organization%20results%20in%20relatively%20more%20low%20clouds%2C%20which%20have%20small%20%28%3C%3D%200.1%29%20precipitation%20efficiencies%2C%20and%20relatively%20less%20high%20clouds%2C%20which%20have%20larger%20%28similar%20to%200.4%29%20precipitation%20efficiencies.%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%20The%20precipitation%20efficiency%20of%20convection%20%28epsilon%29%20quantifies%20the%20fraction%20of%20water%20that%20condenses%20in%20a%20cloud%20that%20reaches%20the%20surface%20as%20precipitation.%20Recent%20work%20has%20shown%20that%20changes%20in%20epsilon%20can%20play%20an%20important%20role%20in%20determining%20the%20warming%20of%20climate%20models%20in%20response%20to%20increases%20in%20atmospheric%20carbon%20dioxide%20concentrations%2C%20and%20epsilon%20is%20also%20a%20key%20factor%20in%20theories%20for%20the%20dynamics%20of%20the%20tropical%20atmosphere.%20Despite%20this%20importance%2C%20however%2C%20epsilon%20is%20poorly%20understood%20and%20poorly%20constrained.%20In%20this%20study%2C%20we%20take%20a%20first%20step%20to%20addressing%20this%20issue%20by%20investigating%20how%20precipitation%20efficiency%20behaves%20in%20idealized%20simulations%20of%20the%20tropical%20atmosphere%2C%20in%20which%20the%20underlying%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20is%20varied%20across%20a%20wide%20range%20of%20values.%20We%20find%20that%20epsilon%20generally%20increases%20with%20warming%20because%20clouds%20become%20denser%20and%20so%20form%20precipitation%20more%20easily%2C%20though%20in%20some%20cases%20epsilon%20decreases%20because%20of%20changes%20in%20the%20large-scale%20flow%20of%20the%20tropical%20atmosphere.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Nov%202018%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2018ms001482%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%221942-2466%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22Y32JYJHY%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222018-10%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282018%29.%20The%20Relationship%20Between%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effect%20and%20Surface%20Temperature%20Variability%20at%20El%20Nino-Southern%20Oscillation%20Frequencies%20in%20CMIP5%20Models.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E45%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2819%29%2C%2010599%26%23x2013%3B10608.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2018gl079236%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1029%5C%2F2018gl079236%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Relationship%20Between%20Cloud%20Radiative%20Effect%20and%20Surface%20Temperature%20Variability%20at%20El%20Nino-Southern%20Oscillation%20Frequencies%20in%20CMIP5%20Models%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20relationship%20between%20the%20tropical%20cloud%20radiative%20effect%20%28CRE%29%20and%20tropical%20surface%20temperature%20variability%20on%20El%20Nino-Southern%20Oscillation%20%28ENSO%29%20time%20scales%20is%20investigated%20in%20preindustrial%20control%20simulations%20from%20the%20fifth%20Climate%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20%28CMIP5%29%20archive.%20The%20tropical%20CRE%20is%20binned%20according%20to%20midtropospheric%20vertical%20velocities%20and%20then%20regressed%20in%20frequency%20space%20versus%20tropical%20mean%20surface%20temperatures.%20Low%20clouds%20play%20a%20leading%20role%20in%20the%20relationship%20between%20clouds%20and%20surface%20temperature%20variability%2C%20amplifying%20ENSO-induced%20surface%20temperature%20anomalies%20through%20thermodynamically%20driven%20changes%20in%20the%20shortwave%20CRE.%20Changes%20in%20CRE%20driven%20by%20changes%20in%20the%20large-scale%20dynamics%20have%20a%20minor%20influence%20on%20surface%20temperature%20variability.%20It%20is%20shown%20that%20the%20regression%20coefficients%20at%20ENSO%20frequencies%20between%20the%20CRE%20in%20regions%20of%20moderate%20subsidence%20and%20of%20weak%20ascent%2C%20and%20tropical%20mean%20surface%20temperatures%20are%20well%20correlated%20with%20models%27%20climate%20sensitivities%2C%20constituting%20a%20potential%20emergent%20constraint%20on%20climate%20sensitivity.%20Plain%20Language%20Summary%20The%20relationship%20between%20clouds%20and%20surface%20temperature%20anomalies%20generated%20by%20El%20Nino-Southern%20Oscillation%20%28ENSO%29%20events%20is%20still%20poorly%20understood.%20This%20is%20concerning%2C%20both%20because%20we%20would%20like%20to%20better%20understand%20the%20dynamics%20of%20ENSO%20and%20because%20we%20would%20like%20to%20use%20this%20relationship%20to%20constrain%20the%20long-term%20response%20of%20clouds%20to%20increased%20CO2%20concentrations.%20Here%20a%20new%20approach%20is%20taken%20to%20investigate%20the%20behavior%20of%20different%20cloud%20types%20during%20ENSO%20events%20in%20ENSO%20events%20in%20state-of-the-art%20climate%20models.%20It%20is%20found%20that%20in%20the%20models%2C%20ENSO-induced%20surface%20temperature%20anomalies%20are%20mainly%20affected%20by%20changes%20in%20the%20amount%20of%20low%20clouds%2C%20with%20variations%20in%20high%20clouds%20and%20in%20the%20relative%20fraction%20of%20low%20versus%20high%20clouds%20playing%20minor%20roles.%20Furthermore%2C%20the%20changes%20in%20low%20clouds%20during%20ENSO%20events%20are%20strongly%20correlated%20with%20the%20models%27%20climate%20sensitivities%20and%20their%20long-term%20warming%20in%20response%20to%20doubling%20CO2%20concentrations.%20This%20shows%20that%20the%20changes%20of%20tropical%20low%20clouds%20during%20ENSO%20events%20can%20be%20used%20to%20better%20constrain%20the%20warming%20that%20Earth%20will%20experience%20if%20CO2%20concentrations%20continue%20increasing.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Oct%202018%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1029%5C%2F2018gl079236%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22V37IKCFM%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Popp%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222018-10%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Popp%2C%20M.%20%282018%29.%20The%20Influence%20of%20Meridional%20Gradients%20in%20Insolation%20and%20Longwave%20Optical%20Depth%20on%20the%20Climate%20of%20a%20Gray%20Radiation%20GCM.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E31%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2819%29%2C%207803%26%23x2013%3B7822.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-18-0103.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-18-0103.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Influence%20of%20Meridional%20Gradients%20in%20Insolation%20and%20Longwave%20Optical%20Depth%20on%20the%20Climate%20of%20a%20Gray%20Radiation%20GCM%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Popp%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20relative%20contributions%20of%20the%20meridional%20gradients%20in%20insolation%20and%20in%20longwave%20optical%20depth%20%28caused%20by%20gradients%20in%20water%20vapor%29%20to%20the%20equator-to-pole%20temperature%20difference%2C%20and%20to%20Earth%27s%20climate%20in%20general%2C%20have%20not%20been%20quantified%20before.%20As%20a%20first%20step%20to%20understanding%20these%20contributions%2C%20this%20study%20investigates%20simulations%20with%20an%20idealized%20general%20circulation%20model%20in%20which%20the%20gradients%20are%20eliminated%20individually%20or%20jointly%2C%20while%20keeping%20the%20global%20means%20fixed.%20The%20insolation%20gradient%20has%20a%20larger%20influence%20on%20the%20model%27s%20climate%20than%20the%20gradient%20in%20optical%20depth%2C%20but%20both%20make%20sizeable%20contributions%20and%20the%20changes%20are%20largest%20when%20the%20gradients%20are%20reduced%20simultaneously.%20Removing%20either%20gradient%20increases%20global-mean%20surface%20temperature%20due%20to%20an%20increase%20in%20the%20tropospheric%20lapse%20rate%2C%20while%20the%20meridional%20surface%20temperature%20gradients%20are%20reduced.%20Global%20warming%20experiments%20with%20these%20configurations%20suggest%20similar%20climate%20sensitivities%3B%20however%2C%20the%20warming%20patterns%20and%20feedbacks%20are%20quite%20different.%20Changes%20in%20the%20meridional%20energy%20fluxes%20lead%20to%20polar%20amplification%20of%20the%20response%20in%20all%20but%20the%20setup%20in%20which%20both%20gradients%20are%20removed.%20The%20lapse-rate%20feedback%20acts%20to%20polar%20amplify%20the%20responses%20in%20the%20Earth-like%20setup%2C%20but%20is%20uniformly%20negative%20in%20the%20other%20setups.%20Simple%20models%20are%20used%20to%20interpret%20the%20results%2C%20including%20a%20prognostic%20model%20that%20can%20accurately%20predict%20regional%20surface%20temperatures%2C%20given%20the%20meridional%20distributions%20of%20insolation%20and%20longwave%20optical%20depths.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Oct%202018%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-18-0103.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22EE84KKEH%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Takahashi%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222018-07%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Takahashi%2C%20K.%20%282018%29.%20What%20Can%20the%20Internal%20Variability%20of%20CMIP5%20Models%20Tell%20Us%20about%20Their%20Climate%20Sensitivity%3F%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20Climate%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E31%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2813%29%2C%205051%26%23x2013%3B5069.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-17-0736.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-17-0736.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22What%20Can%20the%20Internal%20Variability%20of%20CMIP5%20Models%20Tell%20Us%20about%20Their%20Climate%20Sensitivity%3F%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22K.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Takahashi%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20relationship%20between%20climate%20models%27%20internal%20variability%20and%20their%20response%20to%20external%20forcings%20is%20investigated.%20Frequency-dependent%20regressions%20are%20performed%20between%20the%20outgoing%20top-of-atmosphere%20%28TOA%29%20energy%20fluxes%20and%20the%20global-mean%20surface%20temperature%20in%20the%20preindustrial%20control%20simulations%20of%20the%20CMIP5%20archive.%20Two%20distinct%20regimes%20are%20found.%20At%20subdecadal%20frequencies%20the%20surface%20temperature%20and%20the%20outgoing%20shortwave%20flux%20are%20in%20quadrature%2C%20while%20the%20outgoing%20longwave%20flux%20is%20linearly%20related%20to%20temperature%20and%20acts%20as%20a%20negative%20feedback%20on%20temperature%20perturbations.%20On%20longer%20time%20scales%20the%20outgoing%20shortwave%20and%20longwave%20fluxes%20are%20both%20linearly%20related%20to%20temperature%2C%20with%20the%20longwave%20continuing%20to%20act%20as%20a%20negative%20feedback%20and%20the%20shortwave%20acting%20as%20a%20positive%20feedback%20on%20temperature%20variability.%20In%20addition%20to%20the%20different%20phase%20relationships%2C%20the%20two%20regimes%20can%20also%20be%20seen%20in%20estimates%20of%20the%20coherence%20and%20of%20the%20frequency-dependent%20regression%20coefficients.%20The%20frequency-dependent%20regression%20coefficients%20for%20the%20total%20cloudy-sky%20flux%20on%20time%20scales%20of%202.5%20to%203%20years%20are%20found%20to%20be%20strongly%20%28r%282%29%20%3E%200.6%29%20related%20to%20the%20models%27%20equilibrium%20climate%20sensitivities%20%28ECSs%29%2C%20suggesting%20a%20potential%20emergent%20constraint%20for%20Earth%27s%20ECS.%20However%2C%20O%28100%29%20years%20of%20data%20are%20required%20for%20this%20relationship%20to%20become%20robust.%20A%20simple%20model%20for%20Earth%27s%20surface%20temperature%20variability%20and%20its%20relationship%20to%20the%20TOA%20fluxes%20is%20used%20to%20provide%20a%20physical%20interpretation%20of%20these%20results.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Jul%202018%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjcli-d-17-0736.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220894-8755%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A05Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22FDEVELPA%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222018-01%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282018%29.%20The%20Response%20of%20an%20Idealized%20Atmosphere%20to%20Localized%20Tropical%20Heating%3A%20Superrotation%20and%20the%20Breakdown%20of%20Linear%20Theory.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E75%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%281%29%2C%203%26%23x2013%3B20.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-17-0192.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-17-0192.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Response%20of%20an%20Idealized%20Atmosphere%20to%20Localized%20Tropical%20Heating%3A%20Superrotation%20and%20the%20Breakdown%20of%20Linear%20Theory%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22An%20equatorial%20heat%20source%20mimicking%20the%20strong%20diabatic%20heating%20above%20the%20west%20Pacific%20is%20added%20to%20an%20idealized%2C%20dry%20general%20circulationmodel.%20For%20small%20%28%3C0.5Kday%28-1%29%29%20heating%20rates%20the%20responses%20closelymatch%20the%20expectations%20fromlinear%20Matsuno-Gill%20theory%2C%20though%20the%20amplitudes%20of%20the%20responses%20increase%20sublinearly.%20This%20%5C%22linear%27%27%20regime%20breaks%20down%20for%20larger%20heating%20rates%20and%20it%20is%20found%20that%20this%20is%20because%20the%20stability%20of%20the%20tropical%20atmosphere%20increases.%20At%20the%20same%20time%2C%20the%20equatorial%20winds%20increasingly%20superrotate.%20This%20superrotation%20is%20driven%20by%20stationary%20eddy%20momentum%20fluxes%20by%20the%20waves%20excited%20by%20the%20heating%20and%20is%20damped%20by%20the%20vertical%20advection%20of%20lowmomentum%20air%20by%20the%20mean%20flow%20and%2C%20at%20large%20heating%20rates%2C%20by%20the%20divergence%20of%20momentum%20by%20transient%20eddies.%20These%20dynamics%20are%20explored%20in%20additional%20experiments%20in%20which%20the%20equator-to-pole%20temperature%20gradient%20is%20varied.%20Very%20strong%20superrotation%20is%20produced%20when%20a%20large%20heating%20rate%20is%20applied%20to%20a%20setup%20with%20a%20relatively%20weak%20equator-to-pole%20temperature%20gradient%2C%20though%20there%20is%20no%20evidence%20that%20this%20is%20a%20case%20of%20%5C%22runaway%27%27%20superrotation.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Jan%202018%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-17-0192.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22TLT8TRQZ%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222017-11%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Held%2C%20I.%20M.%2C%20Zurita-Gotor%2C%20P.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20O%26%23x2019%3BRourke%2C%20A.%20K.%20%282017%29.%20Lower-Tropospheric%20Eddy%20Momentum%20Fluxes%20in%20Idealized%20Models%20and%20Reanalysis%20Data.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E74%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2811%29%2C%203787%26%23x2013%3B3797.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-17-0099.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-17-0099.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Lower-Tropospheric%20Eddy%20Momentum%20Fluxes%20in%20Idealized%20Models%20and%20Reanalysis%20Data%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22I.%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Held%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22P.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Zurita-Gotor%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22A.%20K.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22O%27Rourke%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22In%20Earth%27s%20atmosphere%20eddy%20momentum%20fluxes%20%28EMFs%29%20are%20largest%20in%20the%20upper%20troposphere%2C%20but%20EMFs%20in%20the%20lower%20troposphere%2C%20although%20modest%20in%20amplitude%2C%20have%20an%20intriguing%20structure.%20To%20document%20this%20structure%2C%20the%20EMFs%20in%20the%20lower%20tropospheres%20of%20a%20two-layer%20quasigeostrophic%20model%2C%20a%20primitive%20equation%20model%2C%20and%20the%20Southern%20Hemisphere%20of%20a%20reanalysis%20dataset%20are%20investigated.%20The%20lower-tropospheric%20EMFs%20are%20very%20similar%20in%20the%20cores%20of%20the%20jets%20in%20both%20models%20and%20the%20reanalysis%20data%2C%20withEMFdivergence%20%28opposing%20the%20upper-tropospheric%20convergence%29%20due%20to%20relatively%20long%20waves%20with%20slow%20eastward%20phase%20speeds%20and%20EMF%20divergence%20%28as%20in%20the%20upper%20troposphere%29%20due%20to%20shorter%20waves%20with%20faster%20eastward%20phase%20speeds.%20As%20the%20two-layer%20model%20is%20able%20to%20capture%20the%20EMF%20divergence%20by%20long%20waves%2C%20a%20qualitative%20picture%20of%20the%20underlying%20dynamics%20is%20proposed%20that%20relies%20on%20the%20negative%20potential%20vorticity%20gradient%20in%20the%20lower%20layer%20of%20the%20model.%20Eddies%20excited%20by%20baroclinic%20instability%20mix%20efficiently%20through%20a%20wide%20region%20in%20the%20lower%20layer%2C%20centered%20on%20the%20latitude%20of%20maximum%20westerlies%20and%20encompassing%20the%20lower-layer%20critical%20latitudes.%20Near%20these%20critical%20latitudes%2C%20the%20mixing%20is%20enhanced%2C%20resulting%20in%20increased%20EMF%20convergence%2C%20with%20compensating%20EMF%20divergence%20in%20the%20center%20of%20the%20jet.%20The%20EMF%20convergence%20at%20faster%20phase%20speeds%20is%20due%20to%20deep%20eddies%20that%20propagate%20on%20the%20upper-tropospheric%20potential%20vorticity%20gradient.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Nov%202017%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-17-0099.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22B88U2SEW%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Popp%20and%20Lutsko%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222017-09%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3EPopp%2C%20M.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%20%282017%29.%20Quantifying%20the%20Zonal-Mean%20Structure%20of%20Tropical%20Precipitation.%20%3Ci%3EGeophysical%20Research%20Letters%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E44%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2818%29%2C%209470%26%23x2013%3B9478.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1002%5C%2F2017gl075235%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1002%5C%2F2017gl075235%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Quantifying%20the%20Zonal-Mean%20Structure%20of%20Tropical%20Precipitation%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Popp%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20tropical%20zonal-mean%20precipitation%20in%20climate%20models%20is%20well%20known%20to%20have%20substantial%20biases%20such%20as%20an%20erroneous%20double%20intertropical%20convergence%20zone%20in%20the%20Pacific%2C%20but%20a%20comprehensive%20quantification%20of%20these%20biases%20is%20currently%20missing.%20Therefore%2C%20we%20introduce%20a%20set%20of%20nine%20indicators%20that%20fully%20characterize%20the%20position%20and%20magnitude%20of%20the%20tropical%20extrema%20in%20zonal-mean%20precipitation.%20An%20analysis%20of%20the%20Coupled%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20%28CMIP%29%20historical%20and%20Atmospheric%20Model%20Intercomparison%20Project%20%28AMIP%29%20simulations%20reveals%20large%20biases%20in%20the%20position%20and%2C%20especially%2C%20in%20the%20magnitude%20of%20the%20zonal-mean%20precipitation%20extrema%20in%20both%20sets%20of%20simulations%20relative%20to%20observations.%20We%20find%20some%20of%20the%20nine%20indicators%20to%20be%20correlated%2C%20and%20that%20the%20structure%20of%20tropical%20precipitation%20can%20be%20well%20represented%20using%20four%20indicators%2C%20though%20these%20indicators%20are%20different%20in%20AMIP%20and%20CMIP.%20Previously%20defined%20indicators%20can%20only%20partly%20explain%20the%20biases%2C%20and%20so%20the%20more%20comprehensive%20terminology%20introduced%20here%20is%20a%20useful%20tool%20for%20characterizing%20tropical%20precipitation.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Sep%202017%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1002%5C%2F2017gl075235%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220094-8276%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22QIH7M3XV%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20and%20Held%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222016-09%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Held%2C%20I.%20M.%20%282016%29.%20The%20Response%20of%20an%20Idealized%20Atmosphere%20to%20Orographic%20Forcing%3A%20Zonal%20versus%20Meridional%20Propagation.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E73%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%289%29%2C%203701%26%23x2013%3B3718.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-16-0021.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-16-0021.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22The%20Response%20of%20an%20Idealized%20Atmosphere%20to%20Orographic%20Forcing%3A%20Zonal%20versus%20Meridional%20Propagation%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22I.%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Held%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22A%20dry%20atmospheric%20general%20circulation%20model%20is%20forced%20with%20large-scale%2C%20Gaussian%20orography%20in%20an%20attempt%20to%20isolate%20a%20regime%20in%20which%20the%20model%20responds%20linearly%20to%20orographic%20forcing%20and%20then%20to%20study%20the%20departures%20from%20linearity%20as%20the%20orography%20is%20increased%20in%20amplitude.%20In%20contrast%20to%20previous%20results%2C%20which%20emphasized%20the%20meridional%20propagation%20of%20orographically%20forced%20stationary%20waves%2C%20using%20the%20standard%20Held-Suarez%20%28H-S%29%20control%20climate%2C%20it%20is%20found%20that%20the%20linear%20regime%20is%20characterized%20by%20a%20meridionally%20trapped%2C%20zonally%20propagating%20wave.%20Meridionally%20trapped%20waves%20of%20this%20kind%20have%20been%20seen%20in%20other%20contexts%2C%20where%20they%20have%20been%20termed%20%5C%22circumglobal%20waves.%5C%22%20As%20the%20height%20of%20the%20orography%20is%20increased%2C%20the%20circumglobal%20wave%20coexists%20with%20a%20meridionally%20propagating%20wave%20and%20for%20large-enough%20heights%20the%20meridionally%20propagating%20wave%20dominates%20the%20response.%20A%20barotropic%20model%20on%20a%20sphere%20reproduces%20this%20trapped%20wave%20in%20the%20linear%20regime%20and%20also%20reproduces%20the%20transition%20to%20meridional%20propagation%20with%20increasing%20amplitude.%20However%2C%20mean-flow%20modification%20by%20the%20stationary%20waves%20is%20very%20different%20in%20the%20two%20models%2C%20making%20it%20difficult%20to%20argue%20that%20the%20transitions%20have%20the%20same%20causes.%20When%20adding%20asymmetry%20across%20the%20equator%20to%20the%20H-S%20control%20climate%20and%20placing%20the%20orography%20in%20the%20cooler%20hemisphere%2C%20it%20becomes%20harder%20to%20generate%20trapped%20waves%20in%20the%20GCM%20and%20the%20trapping%20becomes%20sensitive%20to%20the%20shape%20of%20the%20orography.%20The%20barotropic%20model%20overestimates%20the%20trapping%20in%20this%20case.%20These%20results%20suggest%20that%20an%20improved%20understanding%20of%20the%20role%20of%20circumglobal%20waves%20will%20be%20needed%20to%20understand%20the%20stationary%20wave%20field%20and%20its%20sensitivity%20to%20the%20changes%20in%20the%20zonal%20mean%20climate.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Sep%202016%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-16-0021.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%227YAFBLKH%22%2C%22library%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A9129767%7D%2C%22meta%22%3A%7B%22creatorSummary%22%3A%22Lutsko%20et%20al.%22%2C%22parsedDate%22%3A%222015-08%22%2C%22numChildren%22%3A2%7D%2C%22bib%22%3A%22%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-bib-body%5C%22%20style%3D%5C%22line-height%3A%202%3B%20padding-left%3A%201em%3B%20text-indent%3A-1em%3B%5C%22%3E%5Cn%20%20%3Cdiv%20class%3D%5C%22csl-entry%5C%22%3E%3Cstrong%3ELutsko%2C%20N.%20J.%3C%5C%2Fstrong%3E%2C%20Held%2C%20I.%20M.%2C%20%26amp%3B%20Zurita-Gotor%2C%20P.%20%282015%29.%20Applying%20the%20Fluctuation-Dissipation%20Theorem%20to%20a%20Two-Layer%20Model%20of%20Quasigeostrophic%20Turbulence.%20%3Ci%3EJournal%20of%20the%20Atmospheric%20Sciences%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%2C%20%3Ci%3E72%3C%5C%2Fi%3E%288%29%2C%203161%26%23x2013%3B3177.%20%3Ca%20class%3D%27zp-DOIURL%27%20href%3D%27https%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-14-0356.1%27%3Ehttps%3A%5C%2F%5C%2Fdoi.org%5C%2F10.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-14-0356.1%3C%5C%2Fa%3E%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%5Cn%3C%5C%2Fdiv%3E%22%2C%22data%22%3A%7B%22itemType%22%3A%22journalArticle%22%2C%22title%22%3A%22Applying%20the%20Fluctuation-Dissipation%20Theorem%20to%20a%20Two-Layer%20Model%20of%20Quasigeostrophic%20Turbulence%22%2C%22creators%22%3A%5B%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22N.%20J.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Lutsko%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22I.%20M.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Held%22%7D%2C%7B%22creatorType%22%3A%22author%22%2C%22firstName%22%3A%22P.%22%2C%22lastName%22%3A%22Zurita-Gotor%22%7D%5D%2C%22abstractNote%22%3A%22The%20fluctuation-dissipation%20theorem%20%28FDT%29%20provides%20a%20means%20of%20calculating%20the%20response%20of%20a%20dynamical%20system%20to%20a%20small%20force%20by%20constructing%20a%20linear%20operator%20that%20depends%20only%20on%20data%20from%20the%20internal%20variability%20of%20the%20unperturbed%20system.%20Here%20the%20FDT%20is%20used%20to%20estimate%20the%20response%20of%20a%20two-layer%20quasigeostrophic%20model%20to%20two%20zonally%20symmetric%20torques%2C%20both%20barotropic%2C%20with%20the%20same%20sign%20of%20the%20forcing%20in%20the%20two%20layers%2C%20and%20baroclinic%2C%20with%20opposite%20sign%20forcing%20in%20the%20two%20layers.%20The%20supercriticality%20of%20the%20model%20is%20also%20varied%20to%20test%20how%20the%20FDT%20fares%2C%20as%20this%20parameter%20is%20varied.%20To%20perform%20the%20FDT%20calculations%20the%20data%20are%20decomposed%20onto%20empirical%20orthogonal%20functions%20%28EOFs%29%20and%20only%20those%20EOFs%20that%20are%20well%20resolved%20are%20retained%20in%20the%20FDT%20calculations.%20In%20the%20barotropic%20case%20good%20qualitative%20estimates%20are%20obtained%20for%20all%20values%20of%20the%20supercriticality%2C%20though%20the%20FDT%20consistently%20overestimates%20the%20response%2C%20perhaps%20because%20of%20significant%20non-Gaussian%20behavior%20present%20in%20the%20model.%20Nevertheless%2C%20this%20adds%20to%20the%20evidence%20that%20the%20annular-mode%20time%20scale%20plays%20an%20important%20role%20in%20determining%20the%20response%20of%20the%20midlatitudes%20to%20small%20perturbations.%20The%20baroclinic%20case%20is%20more%20challenging%20for%20the%20FDT.%20However%2C%20by%20constructing%20different%20bases%20with%20which%20to%20calculate%20the%20EOFs%2C%20it%20is%20shown%20that%20the%20issue%20in%20this%20case%20is%20that%20the%20baroclinic%20variability%20is%20poorly%20sampled%2C%20not%20that%20the%20FDT%20fails.%20The%20strategies%20developed%20in%20order%20to%20generate%20these%20estimates%20may%20be%20applicable%20to%20situations%20in%20which%20the%20FDT%20is%20applied%20to%20larger%20systems.%22%2C%22date%22%3A%22Aug%202015%22%2C%22language%22%3A%22%22%2C%22DOI%22%3A%2210.1175%5C%2Fjas-d-14-0356.1%22%2C%22ISSN%22%3A%220022-4928%22%2C%22url%22%3A%22%22%2C%22collections%22%3A%5B%22L968G3EJ%22%5D%2C%22dateModified%22%3A%222022-10-20T15%3A34%3A06Z%22%7D%7D%5D%7D
Duran, B. M., Wall, C. J., Lutsko, N. J., Michibata, T., Ma, P.-L., Qin, Y., Duffy, M. L., Medeiros, B., & Debolskiy, M. (2025). A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 25(4), 2123–2146. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025
Zhang, P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., Lutsko, N. J., Okumura, Y. M., & Miyamoto, A. (2024). Why East Asian monsoon anomalies are more robust in post El Niño than in post La Niña summers. Nature Communications, 15(1), 7401. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51885-7
Vishny, D. N., Wall, C. J., & Lutsko, N. J. (2024). Impact of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects on Annular Mode Persistence in Idealized Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(15), e2024GL109420. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109420
Lutsko, N. J., & Cronin, T. W. (2024). The Transition to Double‐Celled Circulations in Mock‐Walker Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(14), e2024GL108945. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108945
Tuckman, P. J., Smyth, J., Lutsko, N. J., & Marshall, J. (2024). The Zonal Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Precipitation: Introducing the Indo-Pacific Monsoonal Mode. Journal of Climate, 37(14), 3807–3824. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0125.1
Nazarian, R. H., Brizuela, N. G., Matijevic, B. J., Vizzard, J. V., Agostino, C. P., & Lutsko, N. J. (2024). Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation over Northern Mexico. Journal of Climate, 37(8), 2405–2422. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0390.1
Beucler, T., Gentine, P., Yuval, J., Gupta, A., Peng, L., Lin, J., Yu, S., Rasp, S., Ahmed, F., O’Gorman, P. A., Neelin, J. D., Lutsko, N. J., & Pritchard, M. (2024). Climate-invariant machine learning. Science Advances, 10(6), eadj7250. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj7250
Zhang, P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., & Lutsko, N. J. (2024). Non-ENSO Precursors for Northwestern Pacific Summer Monsoon Variability with Implications for Predictability. Journal of Climate, 37(1), 199–212. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0169.1
Lutsko, N. J., Martinez-Claros, J., & Koll, D. D. B. (2024). Atmospheric Moisture Decreases Midlatitude Eddy Kinetic Energy. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 81(11), 1817–1832. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0226.1
Henry, M., Vallis, G. K., Lutsko, N. J., Seeley, J. T., & McKim, B. A. (2023). State‐Dependence of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in a Clear‐Sky GCM. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(23), e2023GL104413. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104413
Beck, H. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., Lutsko, N. J., Dufour, A., Zeng, Z., Jiang, X., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., & Miralles, D. G. (2023). High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections. Scientific Data, 10(1), 724. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02549-6
Ricke, K., Wan, J. S., Saenger, M., & Lutsko, N. J. (2023). Hydrological Consequences of Solar Geoengineering. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 51(1), annurev-earth-031920-083456. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-031920-083456
Koll, D. D. B., Jeevanjee, N., & Lutsko, N. J. (2023). An Analytic Model for the Clear-Sky Longwave Feedback. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 80(8), 1923–1951. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0178.1
Lutsko, N. J., Luongo, M. T., Wall, C. J., & Myers, T. A. (2022). Correlation Between Cloud Adjustments and Cloud Feedbacks Responsible for Larger Range of Climate Sensitivities in CMIP6. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(23). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037486
Neumann, N. K., & Lutsko, N. J. (2022). Continental Geometry’s Role in Shaping Wintertime Temperature Variance. Journal of Climate, 35(24), 4449–4464. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0925.1
Wall, C. J., Norris, J. R., Possner, A., McCoy, D. T., McCoy, I. L., & Lutsko, N. J. (2022). Assessing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions over the global ocean. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(46), e2210481119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210481119
Wall, C. J., Lutsko, N. J., & Vishny, D. N. (2022). Revisiting Cloud Radiative Heating and the Southern Annular Mode. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(19), 9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100463
Nazarian, R. H., Vizzard, J. V., Agostino, C. P., & Lutsko, N. J. (2022). Projected Changes in Future Extreme Precipitation over the Northeast US in the NA-CORDEX Ensemble. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0008.1
Zhang, P., & Lutsko, N. J. (2022). Seasonal Superrotation in Earth’s Troposphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79(12), 3297–3314. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0066.1
Lutsko, N. J., & Hell, M. C. (2021). Moisture and the persistence of annular modes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 78(12), 3951–3964. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-21-0055.1
England, M. R., Eisenman, I., Lutsko, N. J., & Wagner, T. J. W. (2021). The recent emergence of Arctic Amplification. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(15), 10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094086
Jeevanjee, N., Koll, D. D. B., & Lutsko, N. (2021). “Simpson’s Law” and the Spectral Cancellation of Climate Feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093699
Lutsko, N. J., Popp, M., Nazarian, R. H., & Albright, A. L. (2021). Emergent constraints on regional cloud feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(10), 11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl092934
Hell, M. C., Cornuelle, B. D., Gille, S. T., & Lutsko, N. J. (2021). Time-Varying Empirical Probability Densities of Southern Ocean Surface Winds: Linking the Leading Mode to SAM and QuantifyingWind Product Differences. Journal of Climate, 1–80. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0629.1
Henry, M., Merlis, T. M., Lutsko, N. J., & Rose, B. E. J. (2021). Decomposing the drivers of polar amplification with a single-column model. Journal of Climate, 34(6), 2355–2365. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0178.1
Lutsko, N. J. (2021). The relative contributions of temperature and moisture to heat stress changes under warming. Journal of Climate, 34(3), 901–917. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0262.1
Seeley, J. T., Lutsko, N. J., & Keith, D. W. (2021). Designing a radiative antidote to CO2. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090876
Popp, M., Lutsko, N. J., & Bony, S. (2020). Weaker links between zonal convective clustering and ITCZ width in climate models than in observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(22). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090479
Popp, M., Lutsko, N. J., & Bony, S. (2020). The relationship between convective clustering and mean tropical climate in aquaplanet simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002070
Lutsko, N. J. (2020). Testing the Limits and Breakdown of the Nonacceleration Theorem for Orographic Stationary Waves. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 77(5), 1513–1529. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-19-0310.1
Lutsko, N. J., Seeley, J. T., & Keith, D. W. (2020). Estimating impacts and trade-offs in solar geoengineering scenarios with a moist energy balance model. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087290
Lutsko, N. J., Baldwin, J. W., & Cronin, T. W. (2019). The Impact of Large-Scale Orography on Northern Hemisphere Winter Synoptic Temperature Variability. Journal of Climate, 32(18), 5799–5814. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0129.1
Lutsko, N. J., & Popp, M. (2019). Probing the sources of uncertainty in transient warming on different timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(20), 11367–11377. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084018
Lutsko, N. J., Marshall, J., & Green, B. (2019). Modulation of Monsoon Circulations by Cross-Equatorial Ocean Heat Transport. Journal of Climate, 32(12), 3471–3485. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0623.1
Lutsko, N. J., & Cronin, T. W. (2018). Increase in Precipitation Efficiency With Surface Warming in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10(11), 2992–3010. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ms001482
Lutsko, N. J. (2018). The Relationship Between Cloud Radiative Effect and Surface Temperature Variability at El Nino-Southern Oscillation Frequencies in CMIP5 Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(19), 10599–10608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079236
Lutsko, N. J., & Popp, M. (2018). The Influence of Meridional Gradients in Insolation and Longwave Optical Depth on the Climate of a Gray Radiation GCM. Journal of Climate, 31(19), 7803–7822. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0103.1
Lutsko, N. J., & Takahashi, K. (2018). What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us about Their Climate Sensitivity? Journal of Climate, 31(13), 5051–5069. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0736.1
Lutsko, N. J. (2018). The Response of an Idealized Atmosphere to Localized Tropical Heating: Superrotation and the Breakdown of Linear Theory. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(1), 3–20. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-17-0192.1
Lutsko, N. J., Held, I. M., Zurita-Gotor, P., & O’Rourke, A. K. (2017). Lower-Tropospheric Eddy Momentum Fluxes in Idealized Models and Reanalysis Data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74(11), 3787–3797. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-17-0099.1
Popp, M., & Lutsko, N. J. (2017). Quantifying the Zonal-Mean Structure of Tropical Precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(18), 9470–9478. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075235
Lutsko, N. J., & Held, I. M. (2016). The Response of an Idealized Atmosphere to Orographic Forcing: Zonal versus Meridional Propagation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(9), 3701–3718. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-16-0021.1
Lutsko, N. J., Held, I. M., & Zurita-Gotor, P. (2015). Applying the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem to a Two-Layer Model of Quasigeostrophic Turbulence. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72(8), 3161–3177. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-14-0356.1